IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v174y2021icp513-537.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short term solar power forecasting using hybrid minimum variance expanded RVFLN and Sine-Cosine Levy Flight PSO algorithm

Author

Listed:
  • Dash, Deepak Ranjan
  • Dash, P.K.
  • Bisoi, Ranjeeta

Abstract

With the increase in solar power integration, the necessity for accurate solar power forecasting is of paramount importance for various energy markets, grid management system, power dispatching and so on. This paper analyses a new and efficient hybrid forecasting approach consisting of empirical wavelet transform (EWT) and Robust minimum variance Random Vector Functional Link Network (RRVFLN) with random weight vector for the enhancement nodes along with a functionally expanded direct link to the output node from input nodes. The RRVFLN contains dual activation functions in each hidden neuron of the network and its parameters are optimized by an efficient Sine Cosine and levy flight based particle swarm optimization (PSOLVSC). The proposed RRVFLN has some similarity with recently proposed broad learning system that can replace neural networks with deep architecture for handling big and time varying data bases. For examining the solar power prediction accuracy of the proposed EWT-RRVFLN model, the historical solar power data for different seasons of Alabama, Ikitelli, and Berlin are taken into consideration which are divided into three time horizon intervals of 5min, 15min, 30min and 60 min, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Dash, Deepak Ranjan & Dash, P.K. & Bisoi, Ranjeeta, 2021. "Short term solar power forecasting using hybrid minimum variance expanded RVFLN and Sine-Cosine Levy Flight PSO algorithm," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 513-537.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:174:y:2021:i:c:p:513-537
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2021.04.088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096014812100608X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2021.04.088?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lima, Francisco J.L. & Martins, Fernando R. & Pereira, Enio B. & Lorenz, Elke & Heinemann, Detlev, 2016. "Forecast for surface solar irradiance at the Brazilian Northeastern region using NWP model and artificial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P1), pages 807-818.
    2. Hu, Jianming & Wang, Jianzhou, 2015. "Short-term wind speed prediction using empirical wavelet transform and Gaussian process regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1456-1466.
    3. Ueckerdt, Falko & Brecha, Robert & Luderer, Gunnar, 2015. "Analyzing major challenges of wind and solar variability in power systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-10.
    4. Tang, Pingzhou & Chen, Di & Hou, Yushuo, 2016. "Entropy method combined with extreme learning machine method for the short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 243-248.
    5. Wang, Kejun & Qi, Xiaoxia & Liu, Hongda, 2019. "A comparison of day-ahead photovoltaic power forecasting models based on deep learning neural network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Prema, V. & Rao, K. Uma, 2015. "Development of statistical time series models for solar power prediction," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 100-109.
    7. Li, Yanting & He, Yong & Su, Yan & Shu, Lianjie, 2016. "Forecasting the daily power output of a grid-connected photovoltaic system based on multivariate adaptive regression splines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 392-401.
    8. Xun Zhang & Juelong Li & Jianchun Xing & Ping Wang & Qiliang Yang & Ronghao Wang & Can He, 2014. "Optimal Sensor Placement for Latticed Shell Structure Based on an Improved Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-12, June.
    9. Jinling Lu & Bo Wang & Hui Ren & Daqian Zhao & Fei Wang & Miadreza Shafie-khah & João P. S. Catalão, 2017. "Two-Tier Reactive Power and Voltage Control Strategy Based on ARMA Renewable Power Forecasting Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, October.
    10. Wen-chuan Wang & Kwok-wing Chau & Dong-mei Xu & Xiao-Yun Chen, 2015. "Improving Forecasting Accuracy of Annual Runoff Time Series Using ARIMA Based on EEMD Decomposition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2655-2675, June.
    11. Shah, Rakibuzzaman & Mithulananthan, N. & Bansal, R.C. & Ramachandaramurthy, V.K., 2015. "A review of key power system stability challenges for large-scale PV integration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1423-1436.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cheng, Hsu-Yung & Yu, Chih-Chang & Lin, Chih-Lung, 2021. "Day-ahead to week-ahead solar irradiance prediction using convolutional long short-term memory networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 2300-2308.
    2. Juan Li & Qing An & Hong Lei & Qian Deng & Gai-Ge Wang, 2022. "Survey of Lévy Flight-Based Metaheuristics for Optimization," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Yuan-Kang Wu & Cheng-Liang Huang & Quoc-Thang Phan & Yuan-Yao Li, 2022. "Completed Review of Various Solar Power Forecasting Techniques Considering Different Viewpoints," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    5. Tang, Yugui & Yang, Kuo & Zhang, Shujing & Zhang, Zhen, 2022. "Photovoltaic power forecasting: A hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    6. Wang, Han & Zhang, Ning & Du, Ershun & Yan, Jie & Han, Shuang & Li, Nan & Li, Hongxia & Liu, Yongqian, 2023. "An adaptive identification method of abnormal data in wind and solar power stations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 76-93.
    7. Du, Pei & Guo, Ju'e & Sun, Shaolong & Wang, Shouyang & Wu, Jing, 2022. "A novel two-stage seasonal grey model for residential electricity consumption forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Muhammad Naveed Akhter & Saad Mekhilef & Hazlie Mokhlis & Ziyad M. Almohaimeed & Munir Azam Muhammad & Anis Salwa Mohd Khairuddin & Rizwan Akram & Muhammad Majid Hussain, 2022. "An Hour-Ahead PV Power Forecasting Method Based on an RNN-LSTM Model for Three Different PV Plants," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Wang, Xiaoyang & Sun, Yunlin & Luo, Duo & Peng, Jinqing, 2022. "Comparative study of machine learning approaches for predicting short-term photovoltaic power output based on weather type classification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    4. Li, Qing & Zhang, Xinyan & Ma, Tianjiao & Jiao, Chunlei & Wang, Heng & Hu, Wei, 2021. "A multi-step ahead photovoltaic power prediction model based on similar day, enhanced colliding bodies optimization, variational mode decomposition, and deep extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Ren, Xiaoying & Zhang, Fei & Zhu, Honglu & Liu, Yongqian, 2022. "Quad-kernel deep convolutional neural network for intra-hour photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    6. Lee, Donghun & Kim, Kwanho, 2021. "PV power prediction in a peak zone using recurrent neural networks in the absence of future meteorological information," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1098-1110.
    7. Zhou, Yi & Zhou, Nanrun & Gong, Lihua & Jiang, Minlin, 2020. "Prediction of photovoltaic power output based on similar day analysis, genetic algorithm and extreme learning machine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Athanasios I. Salamanis & Georgia Xanthopoulou & Napoleon Bezas & Christos Timplalexis & Angelina D. Bintoudi & Lampros Zyglakis & Apostolos C. Tsolakis & Dimosthenis Ioannidis & Dionysios Kehagias & , 2020. "Benchmark Comparison of Analytical, Data-Based and Hybrid Models for Multi-Step Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-31, November.
    9. Huang, Xiaoqiao & Li, Qiong & Tai, Yonghang & Chen, Zaiqing & Zhang, Jun & Shi, Junsheng & Gao, Bixuan & Liu, Wuming, 2021. "Hybrid deep neural model for hourly solar irradiance forecasting," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1041-1060.
    10. Mayer, Martin János & Gróf, Gyula, 2021. "Extensive comparison of physical models for photovoltaic power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Cabrera-Tobar, Ana & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Gomis-Bellmunt, Oriol, 2016. "Review of advanced grid requirements for the integration of large scale photovoltaic power plants in the transmission system," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 971-987.
    12. Pin Li & Jinsuo Zhang, 2019. "Is China’s Energy Supply Sustainable? New Research Model Based on the Exponential Smoothing and GM(1,1) Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-30, January.
    13. Ahmed, R. & Sreeram, V. & Mishra, Y. & Arif, M.D., 2020. "A review and evaluation of the state-of-the-art in PV solar power forecasting: Techniques and optimization," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Frate, Claudio Albuquerque & Brannstrom, Christian, 2017. "Stakeholder subjectivities regarding barriers and drivers to the introduction of utility-scale solar photovoltaic power in Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 346-352.
    15. Alexis Tantet & Philippe Drobinski, 2021. "A Minimal System Cost Minimization Model for Variable Renewable Energy Integration: Application to France and Comparison to Mean-Variance Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-38, August.
    16. Fernández-Guillamón, Ana & Gómez-Lázaro, Emilio & Muljadi, Eduard & Molina-García, Ángel, 2019. "Power systems with high renewable energy sources: A review of inertia and frequency control strategies over time," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    17. Mohamed Massaoudi & Ines Chihi & Lilia Sidhom & Mohamed Trabelsi & Shady S. Refaat & Fakhreddine S. Oueslati, 2021. "Enhanced Random Forest Model for Robust Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Using Weather Measurements," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-20, July.
    18. Mohammad Zounemat-Kermani, 2016. "Investigating Chaos and Nonlinear Forecasting in Short Term and Mid-term River Discharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(5), pages 1851-1865, March.
    19. Busiswe Skosana & Mukwanga W. Siti & Nsilulu T. Mbungu & Sonu Kumar & Willy Mulumba, 2023. "An Evaluation of Potential Strategies in Renewable Energy Systems and Their Importance for South Africa—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-27, November.
    20. Aurelia Rybak & Aleksandra Rybak & Spas D. Kolev, 2023. "Modeling the Photovoltaic Power Generation in Poland in the Light of PEP2040: An Application of Multiple Regression," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-17, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:174:y:2021:i:c:p:513-537. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.