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Power demand forecasting for demand-driven energy production with biogas plants

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  • Dittmer, Celina
  • Krümpel, Johannes
  • Lemmer, Andreas

Abstract

For the future energy system it becomes increasingly important that biogas plants produce electricity in a demand-oriented way to compensate electricity production from fluctuating sources like wind power and photovoltaics. Flexibilisation concepts provide a coordinated feeding management, which consider different gas production kinetics of used substrates to adjust the biogas production. To enable the generation of a prospective timetable, suitable forecast models for power demand were evaluated. The resulting 48-h forecasts of power demand of a “real-world laboratory” demonstrated that the four selected models achieve comparably good results with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between 13 and 16%. Further evaluation showed that forecasts over longer periods of up to 14 days are advantageous as they are possible without compromising forecast quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Dittmer, Celina & Krümpel, Johannes & Lemmer, Andreas, 2021. "Power demand forecasting for demand-driven energy production with biogas plants," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1871-1877.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:163:y:2021:i:c:p:1871-1877
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mellaku, Meselu Tegenie & Wassie, Yibeltal Tebikew & Seljom, Pernille & Adaramola, Muyiwa S., 2025. "Decentralized renewable energy technology alternatives to bridge manufacturing sector energy supply-demand gap in East Africa: A systematic review of potentials, challenges, and opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    2. Jindong Yang & Xiran Zhang & Wenhao Chen & Fei Rong, 2024. "Prophet–CEEMDAN–ARBiLSTM-Based Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting," Future Internet, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, May.
    3. Ewa Chodakowska & Joanicjusz Nazarko & Łukasz Nazarko, 2021. "ARIMA Models in Electrical Load Forecasting and Their Robustness to Noise," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    4. D'Aquino, Camila A. & Santos, Samantha C. & Sauer, Ildo L., 2022. "Biogas as an alternative source of decentralized bioelectricity for large waste producers: An assessment framework at the University of São Paulo," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    5. Liu, Gang & Wang, Kun & Hao, Xiaochen & Zhang, Zhipeng & Zhao, Yantao & Xu, Qingquan, 2022. "SA-LSTMs: A new advance prediction method of energy consumption in cement raw materials grinding system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Maślak, Grzegorz & Orłowski, Przemysław, 2025. "A robust energy flow predictor based on CNN-LSTM for prosumer-oriented microgrids considering changes in biogas generation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

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