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A new distribution for modeling the wind speed data in Inner Mongolia of China

Author

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  • Jia, Junmei
  • Yan, Zaizai
  • Peng, Xiuyun
  • An, Xiaoyan

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a Topp-Leone Lindley (TLL) distribution by using Topp-Leone (TL) family. Mathematical properties of the TLL distribution are studied. Estimation of the unknown parameters is derived by the methods of maximum likelihood, least squares and maximum product spacings. The performance of the estimation methods is evaluated by means of Monte-Carlo simulation. In the application part of the research, we have used a long term measured wind speed data from ten stations in Inner Mongolia of China. The suitability of the TLL distribution and other six distributions (inverse Gaussian, Birnbaum-Saunders, power Lindley, weighted Lindley, Weibull, inverse Weibull) used to fit for wind speed data is evaluated based on root mean square error, coefficient of determination, the log-likelihood, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K–S) statistic and power density error. The results substantiate that TLL distribution is widely applicable at all selected stations. TLL distribution outperforms the others at five stations, ranks the second at three stations and classifies as the third in remaining two stations. Alternatively, Weighted Lindley distribution is the next best distribution for analyzing wind speed data in selected stations. It is stronger than others at three stations while ranking the second at five stations and fourth in two stations. Although this finding questions the accuracy of Weibull distribution in modeling wind speed data, it provides superior estimation of wind power density for the ten stations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia, Junmei & Yan, Zaizai & Peng, Xiuyun & An, Xiaoyan, 2020. "A new distribution for modeling the wind speed data in Inner Mongolia of China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1979-1991.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:162:y:2020:i:c:p:1979-1991
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.019
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Yue & Qin, Jianjun, 2022. "A novel probabilistic modeling framework for wind speed with highlight of extremes under data discrepancy and uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 326(C).

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