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Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach

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  • Castet, Jean-Francois
  • Saleh, Joseph H.

Abstract

Reliability is widely recognized as a critical design attribute for space systems. In recent articles, we conducted nonparametric analyses and Weibull fits of satellite and satellite subsystems reliability for 1584 Earth-orbiting satellites launched between January 1990 and October 2008. In this paper, we extend our investigation of failures of satellites and satellite subsystems beyond the binary concept of reliability to the analysis of their anomalies and multi-state failures. In reliability analysis, the system or subsystem under study is considered to be either in an operational or failed state; multi-state failure analysis introduces “degraded states†or partial failures, and thus provides more insights through finer resolution into the degradation behavior of an item and its progression towards complete failure. The database used for the statistical analysis in the present work identifies five states for each satellite subsystem: three degraded states, one fully operational state, and one failed state (complete failure). Because our dataset is right-censored, we calculate the nonparametric probability of transitioning between states for each satellite subsystem with the Kaplan–Meier estimator, and we derive confidence intervals for each probability of transitioning between states. We then conduct parametric Weibull fits of these probabilities using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach. After validating the results, we compare the reliability versus multi-state failure analyses of three satellite subsystems: the thruster/fuel; the telemetry, tracking, and control (TTC); and the gyro/sensor/reaction wheel subsystems. The results are particularly revealing of the insights that can be gleaned from multi-state failure analysis and the deficiencies, or blind spots, of the traditional reliability analysis. In addition to the specific results provided here, which should prove particularly useful to the space industry, this work highlights the importance of conducting, beyond the traditional reliability analysis, multi-state failure analysis of any engineering system when seeking to understand its failure behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2010. "Beyond reliability, multi-state failure analysis of satellite subsystems: A statistical approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(4), pages 311-322.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:95:y:2010:i:4:p:311-322
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2009.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2009. "Satellite and satellite subsystems reliability: Statistical data analysis and modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(11), pages 1718-1728.
    2. Marais, Karen B. & Saleh, Joseph H., 2009. "Beyond its cost, the value of maintenance: An analytical framework for capturing its net present value," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 644-657.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rajkumar Bhimgonda Patil & Basavraj S Kothavale & Laxman Yadu Waghmode, 2019. "Selection of time-to-failure model for computerized numerical control turning center based on the assessment of trends in maintenance data," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 233(2), pages 105-117, April.
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    3. Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2012. "On the concept of survivability, with application to spacecraft and space-based networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 123-138.
    4. Damircheli, Mahrad & Fakoor, Mahdi & Yadegari, Hamed, 2020. "Failure assessment logic model (FALM): A new approach for reliability analysis of satellite attitude control subsystem," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
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    6. Jia, Xiang & Guo, Bo, 2022. "Reliability analysis for complex system with multi-source data integration and multi-level data transmission," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    7. Geng, Sunyue & Liu, Sifeng & Fang, Zhigeng & Gao, Su, 2021. "A reliable framework for satellite networks achieving energy requirements," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
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    9. Yun Zhang & Zhengguo Xu & Xinli Wang & Jiangang Lu & Youxian Sun, 2014. "Single minimal path based backup path for multi-state network," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 228(2), pages 152-165, April.
    10. Kim, So Young & Castet, Jean-Francois & Saleh, Joseph H., 2012. "Spacecraft electrical power subsystem: Failure behavior, reliability, and multi-state failure analyses," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 55-65.

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