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An integrated uncertainty analysis method for the risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations

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  • Xie, Qimiao
  • Zhou, Tianyi
  • Wang, Changjian
  • Zhu, Xu
  • Ma, Chao
  • Zhang, Aifeng

Abstract

In order to assess more rigorously the risks of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) with consideration of uncertainties, an uncertainty analysis method integrating the Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+), Monte Carlo simulation, and Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method is proposed in this paper. In order to discuss and demonstrate the potential ability of the proposed method, the leak risk of a 35 MPa dispenser at a HRS is assessed. The results indicate that the proposed method can effectively quantify the leak risk uncertainty of the dispenser at a HRS. These uncertainties considered have significant effects on the leak risks of the dispenser, and the risk contribution of jet fire is much larger than that from explosion. Moreover, the leak risk of the dispenser is underestimated by the HyRAM+, so it should be used by combining a reliable safety factor. Current work can provide a more accurate method for the risk assessment and performance-based design of HRSs.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Qimiao & Zhou, Tianyi & Wang, Changjian & Zhu, Xu & Ma, Chao & Zhang, Aifeng, 2024. "An integrated uncertainty analysis method for the risk assessment of hydrogen refueling stations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:248:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024002138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Giannini, Leonardo & Reniers, Genserik & Yang, Ming & Nogal, Maria & Paltrinieri, Nicola, 2025. "Cost-Informed Risk-based Inspection (CIRBI) for Hydrogen Systems Components: A Novel Approach to Prevention Strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    3. Wang, Shilu & Bi, Yubo & Shi, Jihao & Wu, Qiulan & Zhang, Chuntao & Huang, Shenshi & Gao, Wei & Bi, Mingshu, 2025. "Real-time reconstruction of hydrogen leakage concentration field based on transient sparse monitoring data in hydrogen refueling stations," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    4. Joshi, Anirudha & Sattari, Fereshteh & Lefsrud, Lianne & Khan, M.A. & Xue, Yuxuan, 2025. "Hydrogen Integration into Natural Gas Pipelines: Risk Analysis and Regulatory Recommendations," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 264(PB).
    5. Li, Xin & Ding, Long & Ji, Jie & Xu, Wenjie & Wang, Jin & Cai, Ningbo, 2026. "Ignition probability assessment of leaked fuel on hot surfaces in aircraft based on multivariate statistical analysis and system dynamics," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 267(PA).
    6. Zheng, Xiangyu & Liu, Qi & Li, Yufeng & Wang, Bo & Qin, Wutao, 2025. "Safety risk assessment for connected and automated vehicles: Integrating FTA and CM-improved AHP," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 257(PA).
    7. Riccardi, L. & Compare, M. & Mascherona, R. & Zio, E., 2025. "Structural causal modeling and STPA for the risk analysis of a rail system powered by H2 fuel," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    8. Su, Chenxin & Li, Bo & Zhang, Wei & Tian, Wei & Liao, Wenhe, 2025. "An analysis and reliability-based optimization design method of trajectory accuracy for industrial robots considering parametric uncertainties," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).
    9. Kong, Deyan & Wu, Di & Cheng, Jie & Wang, Jianjun, 2026. "Analysis of fuel assembly geometric uncertainties based on sub-channel code," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 266(PA).
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