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The effects of dynamic multi-hazard risk assessment on evacuation strategies in chemical accidents

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  • He, Zhichao
  • Shen, Kaixin
  • Lan, Meng
  • Weng, Wenguo

Abstract

With the agglomeration and complication of the chemical industry, the multi-hazard and dynamic characteristics have become new challenges for chemical safety management and loss prevention research. As an important topic of safety research in chemical industries, the evacuation strategy also needs to be improved according to the new characteristics of chemical accidents. Here we propose a method for evacuation strategy development in chemical accidents based on dynamic and multi-hazard risk assessment. This method adopts the cumulative individual risk as the evaluation indicator for the optimal evacuation strategy. This method can dynamically consider the multi-hazard characteristics and domino effects of chemical accidents during the evacuation. A multi-hazard chemical accident that happened in Xiangshui, China in 2019 is taken as a case study to show the effects of risk assessment results on evacuation strategy development. The case shows that a reasonable time period for shelter-in-place after the occurrence of the primary accident can reduce the cumulative individual risk in the evacuation process. It is expected that this paper can provide guidance and reference for loss prevention in chemical industries, and can also provide useful tools for the management of emergency response.

Suggested Citation

  • He, Zhichao & Shen, Kaixin & Lan, Meng & Weng, Wenguo, 2024. "The effects of dynamic multi-hazard risk assessment on evacuation strategies in chemical accidents," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 246(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:246:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024001194
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.110044
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    Cited by:

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    3. Men, Jinkun & Chen, Guohua & Reniers, Genserik, 2024. "Pareto-based design optimization of chemical tank farm using a trade-off between domino effects related and land resource utilization efficiency," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
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    5. Luan, Tianyi & Gai, Wenmei & Sun, Diange & Dong, Hao, 2025. "Emergency evacuation risk assessment for toxic gas attacks in airport terminals: Model, algorithm, and application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).

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