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Development of efficient complete-sampling-based seismic PSA method for nuclear power plant

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  • Kwag, Shinyoung
  • Park, Junhee
  • Choi, In-Kil

Abstract

In this study, we propose an enhanced complete-sampling-based seismic PSA quantification technique that can precisely treat the partial correlations among components of seismic fragility information. Specifically, we have developed an improved seismic PSA quantification code by combining advantages of two representative methodologies: EPRI separation of variables approach-seismic fragility input based quantification method and the JAERI seismic fragility input based SECOM2-DQFM technique [31]. The most important feature of the proposed method is that it maps the EPRI seismic fragility input into the JAERI seismic fragility input space and then utilizes the improved DQFM algorithm as a seismic PSA quantification method. The improvement in the existing DQFM algorithm lies in extracting samples only from the median seismic intensity level (Am) and re-using such samples by scaling their values, instead of extracting samples of the response R and the capacity C regarding all seismic intensity levels. From the results of applying the proposed method to simple examples and an actual nuclear power plant, it is confirmed that the method proposed in this study derives results for system seismic fragility and seismic risk that are close to the exact solutions using fewer samples than the existing DQFM does.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwag, Shinyoung & Park, Junhee & Choi, In-Kil, 2020. "Development of efficient complete-sampling-based seismic PSA method for nuclear power plant," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:197:y:2020:i:c:s0951832019304521
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.106824
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kwag, Shinyoung & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2018. "Probabilistic risk assessment based model validation method using Bayesian network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-393.
    2. Zhou, Taotao & Modarres, Mohammad & Droguett, Enrique López, 2018. "An improved multi-unit nuclear plant seismic probabilistic risk assessment approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 34-47.
    3. Stanley Kaplan, 1981. "On The Method of Discrete Probability Distributions in Risk and Reliability Calculations–Application to Seismic Risk Assessment," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 1(3), pages 189-196, September.
    4. Hakata, Tadakuni, 2007. "Seismic PSA method for multiple nuclear power plants in a site," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 883-894.
    5. Stan Kaplan & James C. Lin, 1987. "An Improved Condensation Procedure in Discrete Probability Distribution Calculations," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 7(1), pages 15-19, March.
    6. Borgonovo, E. & Zentner, I. & Pellegri, A. & Tarantola, S. & de Rocquigny, E., 2013. "On the importance of uncertain factors in seismic fragility assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 66-76.
    7. Yonghee Ryu & Shinyoung Kwag & Bu‐Seog Ju, 2018. "Fragility Assessments of Multi-Story Piping Systems within a Seismically Isolated Low-Rise Building," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.
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    1. Pang, Rui & Zai, Dezhi & Xu, Bin & Liu, Jun & Zhao, Chunfeng & Fan, Qunying & Chen, Yuting, 2023. "Stochastic dynamic and reliability analysis of AP1000 nuclear power plants via DPIM subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
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    3. Shinyoung Kwag & Daegi Hahm, 2020. "Multi-objective-based seismic fragility relocation for a Korean nuclear power plant," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3633-3659, September.
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    6. Zhao, Yan-Gang & Qin, Miao-Jun & Lu, Zhao-Hui & Zhang, Long-Wen, 2021. "Seismic fragility analysis of nuclear power plants considering structural parameter uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

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