IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v191y2019ics0951832018313553.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards

Author

Listed:
  • Stewart, Mark G.
  • Netherton, Michael D.

Abstract

There are many circumstances where decision-makers consider risks associated with explosions – from either natural or deliberate events – where the goal is clarity with respect to the actual safety and hazard risks posed to society and its people, systems and infrastructure. The paper describes how probabilistic safety and hazard modelling of blast and fragmentation can better inform a Quantitative Explosive Risk assessment (QERA). A QERA may be used to define an explosive safety distance based on the risk of explosive hazards being less than a societal acceptable risk. The concepts are illustrated with scenarios at a generic explosives ordnance (EO) site. In one scenario we demonstrate that current, deterministically based, regulations in Australia and internationally may be overly conservative. In other words, a deterministic based regulation may show that a building is located in an unsafe area, whereas a QERA can show, for the same building, that fatality risks are less than those deemed acceptable by society. Another example demonstrates the significant effect that uncertainty modelling, particularly that associated with post-detonation blast-loads, has on fatality risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2019. "A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018313553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.05.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832018313553
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2019.05.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Russo, Paola & Parisi, Fulvio, 2016. "Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 57-66.
    2. Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio & Salzano, Ernesto, 2015. "Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 53-62.
    3. Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2008. "Security risks and probabilistic risk assessment of glazing subject to explosive blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(4), pages 627-638.
    4. Grant, Matthew J. & Stewart, Mark G., 2017. "Modelling improvised explosive device attacks in the West – Assessing the hazard," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 345-354.
    5. Häring, I. & Schönherr, M. & Richter, C., 2009. "Quantitative hazard and risk analysis for fragments of high-explosive shells in air," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1461-1470.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kishore, Katchalla Bala & Gangolu, Jaswanth & Ramancha, Mukesh K. & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Performance-based probabilistic deflection capacity models and fragility estimation for reinforced concrete column and beam subjected to blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    2. Khastgir, Siddartha & Brewerton, Simon & Thomas, John & Jennings, Paul, 2021. "Systems Approach to Creating Test Scenarios for Automated Driving Systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    3. Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Topal, Erkan, 2023. "Reliability and availability artificial intelligence models for predicting blast-induced ground vibration intensity in open-pit mines to ensure the safety of the surroundings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. ZHAI, Cheng-lin & CHEN, Xiao-wei, 2020. "Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    5. Celano, Francesca & Dolšek, Matjaž, 2021. "Fatality risk estimation for industrialized urban areas considering multi-hazard domino effects triggered by earthquakes," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    6. Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2021. "Casualty Risks Induced by Primary Fragmentation Hazards from High-explosive munitions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marks, Nicholas A & Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D. & Stirling, Chris G., 2021. "Airblast variability and fatality risks from a VBIED in a complex urban environment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    2. ZHAI, Cheng-lin & CHEN, Xiao-wei, 2020. "Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    3. Chen, Chao & Yang, Ming & Reniers, Genserik, 2021. "A dynamic stochastic methodology for quantifying HAZMAT storage resilience," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    4. Stewart, Mark G., 2010. "Risk-informed decision support for assessing the costs and benefits of counter-terrorism protective measures for infrastructure," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 29-40.
    5. Yin, Yuanbo & Yang, Hao & Duan, Pengfei & Li, Luling & Zio, Enrico & Liu, Cuiwei & Li, Yuxing, 2022. "Improved quantitative risk assessment of a natural gas pipeline considering high-consequence areas," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    6. Zhang, Laobing & Reniers, Genserik & Chen, Bin & Qiu, Xiaogang, 2019. "CCP game: A game theoretical model for improving the scheduling of chemical cluster patrolling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    7. IAIANI, Matteo & TUGNOLI, Alessandro & BONVICINI, Sarah & COZZANI, Valerio, 2021. "Analysis of Cybersecurity-related Incidents in the Process Industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Mark G. Stewart & John Mueller, 2013. "Terrorism Risks and Cost‐Benefit Analysis of Aviation Security," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(5), pages 893-908, May.
    9. Paola Russo & Alessandra De Marco & Fulvio Parisi, 2020. "Assessment of the Damage from Hydrogen Pipeline Explosions on People and Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-15, September.
    10. Marroni, Giulia & Casini, Leonardo & Bartolucci, Andrea & Kuipers, Sanneke & Casson Moreno, Valeria & Landucci, Gabriele, 2024. "Development of fragility models for process equipment affected by physical security attacks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    11. Argenti, Francesca & Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio, 2018. "Vulnerability assessment of chemical facilities to intentional attacks based on Bayesian Network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 515-530.
    12. Chen, Yinuo & Xie, Shuyi & Tian, Zhigang, 2022. "Risk assessment of buried gas pipelines based on improved cloud-variable weight theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    13. Qiu, Qingan & Cui, Lirong & Gao, Hongda & Yi, He, 2018. "Optimal allocation of units in sequential probability series systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 351-363.
    14. Khakzad, Nima & Reniers, Genserik, 2019. "Low-capacity utilization of process plants: A cost-robust approach to tackle man-made domino effects," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    15. Uthpala Rathnayake & Denvid Lau & Cheuk Lun Chow, 2020. "Review on Energy and Fire Performance of Water Wall Systems as a Green Building Façade," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-27, October.
    16. Thöns, Sebastian & Stewart, Mark G., 2019. "On decision optimality of terrorism risk mitigation measures for iconic bridges," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 574-583.
    17. Matteini, Anita & Argenti, Francesca & Salzano, Ernesto & Cozzani, Valerio, 2019. "A comparative analysis of security risk assessment methodologies for the chemical industry," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    18. Hou, Lei & Wu, Xingguang & Wu, Zhuang & Wu, Shouzhi, 2020. "Pattern identification and risk prediction of domino effect based on data mining methods for accidents occurred in the tank farm," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    19. Iaiani, Matteo & Sorichetti, Riccardo & Tugnoli, Alessandro & Cozzani, Valerio, 2024. "Modelling standoff distances to prevent escalation in shooting attacks to tanks storing hazardous materials," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Li, Xiaofeng & Chen, Guohua & Amyotte, Paul & Khan, Faisal & Alauddin, Mohammad, 2023. "Vulnerability assessment of storage tanks exposed to simultaneous fire and explosion hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018313553. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.