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A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards

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  • Stewart, Mark G.
  • Netherton, Michael D.

Abstract

There are many circumstances where decision-makers consider risks associated with explosions – from either natural or deliberate events – where the goal is clarity with respect to the actual safety and hazard risks posed to society and its people, systems and infrastructure. The paper describes how probabilistic safety and hazard modelling of blast and fragmentation can better inform a Quantitative Explosive Risk assessment (QERA). A QERA may be used to define an explosive safety distance based on the risk of explosive hazards being less than a societal acceptable risk. The concepts are illustrated with scenarios at a generic explosives ordnance (EO) site. In one scenario we demonstrate that current, deterministically based, regulations in Australia and internationally may be overly conservative. In other words, a deterministic based regulation may show that a building is located in an unsafe area, whereas a QERA can show, for the same building, that fatality risks are less than those deemed acceptable by society. Another example demonstrates the significant effect that uncertainty modelling, particularly that associated with post-detonation blast-loads, has on fatality risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2019. "A probabilistic risk-acceptance model for assessing blast and fragmentation safety hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:191:y:2019:i:c:s0951832018313553
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2019.05.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Landucci, Gabriele & Reniers, Genserik & Cozzani, Valerio & Salzano, Ernesto, 2015. "Vulnerability of industrial facilities to attacks with improvised explosive devices aimed at triggering domino scenarios," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 53-62.
    2. Stewart, Mark G. & Netherton, Michael D., 2008. "Security risks and probabilistic risk assessment of glazing subject to explosive blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(4), pages 627-638.
    3. Grant, Matthew J. & Stewart, Mark G., 2017. "Modelling improvised explosive device attacks in the West – Assessing the hazard," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 345-354.
    4. Häring, I. & Schönherr, M. & Richter, C., 2009. "Quantitative hazard and risk analysis for fragments of high-explosive shells in air," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 94(9), pages 1461-1470.
    5. Russo, Paola & Parisi, Fulvio, 2016. "Risk-targeted safety distance of reinforced concrete buildings from natural-gas transmission pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 57-66.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

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    3. Nguyen, Hoang & Bui, Xuan-Nam & Topal, Erkan, 2023. "Reliability and availability artificial intelligence models for predicting blast-induced ground vibration intensity in open-pit mines to ensure the safety of the surroundings," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. ZHAI, Cheng-lin & CHEN, Xiao-wei, 2020. "Probability damage calculation of building targets under the missile warhead strike," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
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    6. Qin, Hao & Stewart, Mark G., 2021. "Casualty Risks Induced by Primary Fragmentation Hazards from High-explosive munitions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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