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Does free pre-kindergarten increase birth rates? Preliminary evidence from Vermont

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  • Kuroki, Masanori

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of Vermont's Act 166 of 2014, which established universal pre-kindergarten, on birth rates among women aged 20–44. Contrary to the expectation of increased fertility, no meaningful increase in total, first, or subsequent birth rates was observed after program implementation. This aligns with existing research suggesting limited effectiveness of pronatalist policies. However, subsequent birth rates in Vermont declined at a slower rate than first birth rates compared to a synthetic control group, hinting at a potential positive influence on existing parents' decisions to have additional children.

Suggested Citation

  • Kuroki, Masanori, 2025. "Does free pre-kindergarten increase birth rates? Preliminary evidence from Vermont," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:79:y:2025:i:1:s1090944325000171
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2025.101040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Averett, Susan L. & Wang, Yang, 2023. "Assessing the Fertility Effects of Childcare Cost Subsidies: Evidence from the Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit," IZA Discussion Papers 16263, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Ronald Rindfuss & David Guilkey & S. Morgan & Øystein Kravdal & Karen Guzzo, 2007. "Child care availability and first-birth timing in Norway," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 44(2), pages 345-372, May.
    3. Eva Mörk & Anna Sjögren & Helena Svaleryd, 2013. "Childcare costs and the demand for children—evidence from a nationwide reform," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 33-65, January.
    4. Hao Li, 2020. "The effect of universal pre‐kindergarten policy on female labor force participation—A synthetic control approach," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 87(2), pages 440-482, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Family planning; Fertility; Child care; Preschool;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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