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How to use aggregation and combined forecasting to improve seasonal demand forecasts

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  • Dekker, Mark
  • van Donselaar, Karel
  • Ouwehand, Pim

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  • Dekker, Mark & van Donselaar, Karel & Ouwehand, Pim, 2004. "How to use aggregation and combined forecasting to improve seasonal demand forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 151-167, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:90:y:2004:i:2:p:151-167
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bunn, Derek W. & Vassilopoulos, Angelos I., 1999. "Comparison of seasonal estimation methods in multi-item short-term forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 431-443, October.
    2. Weiss, Andrew A., 1984. "Systematic sampling and temporal aggregation in time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 271-281, December.
    3. Withycombe, Richard, 1989. "Forecasting with combined seasonal indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 547-552.
    4. Bunn, Derek W. & Vassilopoulos, A. I., 1993. "Using group seasonal indices in multi-item short-term forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 517-526, December.
    5. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Forecasting time series with common seasonal patterns," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1-2), pages 173-200.
    6. Raveh, Adi & Tapiero, Charles S., 1980. "Finding common seasonal patterns among time series : An MDS approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 353-363, April.
    7. Ord, Keith & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros, 2000. "The M3-Competition1," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 433-436.
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    Cited by:

    1. Moon, Seongmin & Simpson, Andrew & Hicks, Christian, 2013. "The development of a classification model for predicting the performance of forecasting methods for naval spare parts demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 449-454.
    2. Crnkovic, Jakov & Tayi, Giri K. & Ballou, Donald P., 2008. "A decision-support framework for exploring supply chain tradeoffs," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 28-38, September.
    3. Barrow, Devon K. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2016. "Distributions of forecasting errors of forecast combinations: Implications for inventory management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 24-33.
    4. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:60:y:2009:i:1:d:10.1057_jors.2008.173 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2013. "Forecasting aggregate demand: Analytical comparison of top-down and bottom-up approaches in a multivariate exponential smoothing framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 185-198.
    6. Chen, Argon & Blue, Jakey, 2010. "Performance analysis of demand planning approaches for aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating interrelated demands," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 586-602, December.
    7. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    8. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:57:y:2006:i:1:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2601941 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Sbrana, Giacomo & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2014. "Random switching exponential smoothing and inventory forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 283-294.
    10. Moon, Seongmin & Hicks, Christian & Simpson, Andrew, 2012. "The development of a hierarchical forecasting method for predicting spare parts demand in the South Korean Navy—A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 794-802.
    11. Chen, Huijing & Boylan, John E., 2008. "Empirical evidence on individual, group and shrinkage seasonal indices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 525-534.
    12. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:59:y:2008:i:9:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602597 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2008. "Industrial production, volatility, and the supply chain," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 553-558, October.
    14. Lindsey, Matthew & Pavur, Robert, 2009. "Prediction intervals for future demand of existing products with an observed demand of zero," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 75-89, May.
    15. Pim Ouwehand & Rob J. Hyndman & Ton G. de Kok & Karel H. van Donselaar, 2007. "A state space model for exponential smoothing with group seasonality," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 7/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    16. repec:pal:jorsoc:v:58:y:2007:i:12:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2602310 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Poloni, Federico & Sbrana, Giacomo, 2015. "A note on forecasting demand using the multivariate exponential smoothing framework," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 143-150.
    18. Arunraj, Nari Sivanandam & Ahrens, Diane, 2015. "A hybrid seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average and quantile regression for daily food sales forecasting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(PA), pages 321-335.
    19. Dolgui, Alexandre & Pashkevich, Maksim, 2008. "Demand forecasting for multiple slow-moving items with short requests history and unequal demand variance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 885-894, April.

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