IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/proeco/v134y2011i1p159-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Evaluating the robustness of lead time demand models

Author

Listed:
  • Rossetti, Manuel D.
  • Yasin Ünlü

Abstract

This paper examines the robustness of lead time demand models for the continuous review (r, Q) inventory policy. A number of classic distributions, (e.g. normal, lognormal, gamma, Poisson and negative binomial) as well as distribution selection rules are examined under a wide variety of demand conditions. First, the models are compared to each other by assuming a known demand process and evaluating the errors associated with using a different model. Then, the models are examined using a large sample of simulated demand conditions. Approximation results of inventory performance measures--ready rate, expected number of backorders and on-hand inventory levels are reported. Results indicate that distribution selection rules have great potential for modeling the lead time demand.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossetti, Manuel D. & Yasin Ünlü, 2011. "Evaluating the robustness of lead time demand models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 159-176, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:134:y:2011:i:1:p:159-176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925527311002763
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Heuts, R.M.J. & van Lieshout, J.T.H.C. & Baken, K., 1986. "An inventory model : What is the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution?," Research Memorandum FEW 205, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Xiaobo Zhao & Fan Fan & Xiaoliang Liu & Jinxing Xie, 2007. "Storage-Space Capacitated Inventory System with ( r, Q ) Policies," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 854-865, October.
    3. L W G Strijbosch & R M J Heuts & E H M van der Schoot, 2000. "A combined forecast—inventory control procedure for spare parts," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(10), pages 1184-1192, October.
    4. Tadikamalla, Pandu R, 1984. "A comparison of several approximations to the lead time demand distribution," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 12(6), pages 575-581.
    5. Shore, Haim, 1999. "Optimal solutions for stochastic inventory models when the lead-time demand distribution is partially specified," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-3), pages 477-485, March.
    6. Leven, Erik & Segerstedt, Anders, 2004. "Inventory control with a modified Croston procedure and Erlang distribution," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 361-367, August.
    7. Bartezzaghi, Emilio & Verganti, Roberto & Zotteri, Giulio, 1999. "Measuring the impact of asymmetric demand distributions on inventories," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 395-404, April.
    8. Katrien Ramaekers & Gerrit K. Janssens, 2008. "On the choice of a demand distribution for inventory management models," European Journal of Industrial Engineering, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 2(4), pages 479-491.
    9. Eliezer Naddor, 1978. "Note--Sensitivity to Distributions in Inventory Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(16), pages 1769-1772, December.
    10. C Larsen & A Thorstenson, 2008. "A comparison between the order and the volume fill rate for a base-stock inventory control system under a compound renewal demand process," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(6), pages 798-804, June.
    11. Heuts, R.M.J. & van Lieshout, J.T.H.C. & Baken, K., 1986. "An inventory model : What is the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution?," Other publications TiSEM a72f9e6b-aecb-4355-b4dc-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Teunter, Ruud & Dekker, Rommert, 2008. "An easy derivation of the order level optimality condition for inventory systems with backordering," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 201-204, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cobb, Barry R. & Johnson, Alan W. & Rumí, Rafael & Salmerón, Antonio, 2015. "Accurate lead time demand modeling and optimal inventory policies in continuous review systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 124-136.
    2. Parsa, Payam & Rossetti, Manuel D. & Zhang, Shengfan & Pohl, Edward A., 2017. "Quantifying the benefits of continuous replenishment program for partner evaluation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 229-245.
    3. Saldanha, John P., 2022. "Estimating the reorder point for a fill-rate target under a continuous review policy in the presence of non-standard lead-time demand distributions," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    4. John P. Saldanha & Bradley S. Price & Douglas J. Thomas, 2023. "A nonparametric approach for setting safety stock levels," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1150-1168, April.
    5. Mekhtiev, Mirza Arif, 2013. "Analytical evaluation of lead-time demand in polytree supply chains with uncertain demand, lead-time and inter-demand time," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 304-317.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alp Akcay & Bahar Biller & Sridhar Tayur, 2011. "Improved Inventory Targets in the Presence of Limited Historical Demand Data," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 297-309, July.
    2. Vernimmen, Bert & Dullaert, Wout & Willemé, Peter & Witlox, Frank, 2008. "Using the inventory-theoretic framework to determine cost-minimizing supply strategies in a stochastic setting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 248-259, September.
    3. Mekhtiev, Mirza Arif, 2013. "Analytical evaluation of lead-time demand in polytree supply chains with uncertain demand, lead-time and inter-demand time," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 304-317.
    4. Hon‐Shiang Lau & Amy Hing‐Ling Lau, 2003. "Nonrobustness of the normal approximation of lead‐time demand in a (Q, R) system," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(2), pages 149-166, March.
    5. Chan, Chi Kin & Fang, Fei & Langevin, André, 2018. "Single-vendor multi-buyer supply chain coordination with stochastic demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 110-133.
    6. Syntetos, Aris A. & Boylan, John E., 2010. "On the variance of intermittent demand estimates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 546-555, December.
    7. John P. Saldanha & Bradley S. Price & Douglas J. Thomas, 2023. "A nonparametric approach for setting safety stock levels," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 32(4), pages 1150-1168, April.
    8. Teunter, Ruud & Sani, Babangida, 2009. "Calculating order-up-to levels for products with intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 82-86, March.
    9. Boylan, J.E. & Syntetos, A.A., 2007. "The accuracy of a Modified Croston procedure," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 511-517, June.
    10. Sofia Estelles-Miguel & Manuel Cardos & Jose Miguel Albarracin Guillem & Marta Palmer Gato, 2014. "Calculation of the Approaches to Cycle Service Level in Continuous Review Policy: A Tool for Corporate Entrepreneur," Business and Management Research, Business and Management Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(1), pages 54-60, March.
    11. John E. Tyworth & Liam O'Neill, 1997. "Robustness of the normal approximation of lead‐time demand in a distribution setting," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(2), pages 165-186, March.
    12. Sinan Apak, 2015. "A Bayesian Approach Proposal For Inventory Cost and Demand Forecasting," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 3(2), pages 41-48, December.
    13. Jože Martin Rožanec & Blaž Fortuna & Dunja Mladenić, 2022. "Reframing Demand Forecasting: A Two-Fold Approach for Lumpy and Intermittent Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.
    14. Cardós, Manuel & Babiloni, Eugenia, 2011. "Exact and approximate calculation of the cycle service level in periodic review inventory policies," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 63-68, May.
    15. Prak, Dennis & Rogetzer, Patricia, 2022. "Timing intermittent demand with time-varying order-up-to levels," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(3), pages 1126-1136.
    16. Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2019. "Spare parts inventory management: New evidence from distribution fitting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 118-130.
    17. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    18. Anne E. Lordahl & James H. Bookbinder, 1994. "Order‐statistic calculation, costs, and service in an (s, Q) inventory system," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 81-97, February.
    19. Georgia Perakis & Guillaume Roels, 2008. "Regret in the Newsvendor Model with Partial Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(1), pages 188-203, February.
    20. Strijbosch, L.W.G. & Moors, J.J.A., 2006. "Modified normal demand distributions in (R, S)-inventory control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 201-212, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:proeco:v:134:y:2011:i:1:p:159-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpe .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.