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Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019

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  • James, Nick
  • Menzies, Max

Abstract

We introduce new frameworks to study spatio-temporal patterns in carbon dioxide emissions, demographic trends and economic patterns across 50 countries over the past 50 years. Our analysis is broken up into four sections. First, we introduce a new method to classify countries into one of three characteristic emissions classes based on a one, two or three-segment piecewise linear model. We reveal that most countries are best represented by a piecewise linear model with one change point. Next, we perform a decade-by-decade study of carbon dioxide trajectories. There, we demonstrate notable changes in cluster structures in each decade. We then study the spatial propagation of emissions over time, highlighting a peak in spatial dispersion in 2000, beyond which there has been a gradual decline in spatial emissions variance over space. Finally, we use carbon dioxide, GDP, and population data and apply dimensionality reduction and clustering to group countries based on similarity in their real and carbon economies.

Suggested Citation

  • James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2022. "Global and regional changes in carbon dioxide emissions: 1970–2019," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 608(P1).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:608:y:2022:i:p1:s0378437122008603
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2022.128302
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nick James & Max Menzies & Kevin Chin, 2022. "Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments," Papers 2203.15911, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    2. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "Efficiency of communities and financial markets during the 2020 pandemic," Papers 2104.02318, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    3. Drew Shindell & Greg Faluvegi & Karl Seltzer & Cary Shindell, 2018. "Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 291-295, April.
    4. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chin, Kevin, 2022. "Economic state classification and portfolio optimisation with application to stagflationary environments," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Nick James & Max Menzies, 2021. "A new measure between sets of probability distributions with applications to erratic financial behavior," Papers 2106.07377, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2021.
    6. Alexander Karaivanov, 2020. "A social network model of COVID-19," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-33, October.
    7. Haroldo V. Ribeiro & Diego Rybski & Jürgen P. Kropp, 2019. "Effects of changing population or density on urban carbon dioxide emissions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    8. Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Tomasz Stanisz & Marcin Wk{a}torek, 2020. "Complexity in economic and social systems: cryptocurrency market at around COVID-19," Papers 2009.10030, arXiv.org.
    9. Mendes, Carlos F.O. & Beims, Marcus W., 2018. "Distance correlation detecting Lyapunov instabilities, noise-induced escape times and mixing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 721-730.
    10. Mason, Karl & Duggan, Jim & Howley, Enda, 2018. "Forecasting energy demand, wind generation and carbon dioxide emissions in Ireland using evolutionary neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 705-720.
    11. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Gottwald, Georg A., 2022. "On financial market correlation structures and diversification benefits across and within equity sectors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    12. Nick James & Max Menzies & Georg A. Gottwald, 2022. "On financial market correlation structures and diversification benefits across and within equity sectors," Papers 2202.10623, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
    13. Yu-Jing Chiu & Yi-Chung Hu & Peng Jiang & Jingci Xie & Yen-Wei Ken, 2020. "A Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Using Neural Networks with Application to Carbon Dioxide Emissions Forecasting," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. James, Nick & Menzies, Max & Chok, James & Milner, Aaron & Milner, Cas, 2023. "Geometric persistence and distributional trends in worldwide terrorism," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    2. James, Nick & Menzies, Max, 2023. "An exploration of the mathematical structure and behavioural biases of 21st century financial crises," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    3. Zhang, Hongsheng & Xiong, Peizhi & Yang, Shangzhao & Yu, Jinna, 2023. "Renewable energy utilization, green finance and agricultural land expansion in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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