IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v466y2017icp422-434.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction using the chaos theory and support vector regression method

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Anyu
  • Jiang, Xiao
  • Li, Yongfu
  • Zhang, Chao
  • Zhu, Hao

Abstract

This study proposes a multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction algorithm using the chaos theory and support vector regression method. In particular, first, the chaotic characteristics of traffic flow associated with the speed, occupancy, and flow are identified using the maximum Lyapunov exponent. Then, the phase space of multiple measures chaotic time series are reconstructed based on the phase space reconstruction theory and fused into a same multi-dimensional phase space using the Bayesian estimation theory. In addition, the support vector regression (SVR) model is designed to predict the traffic flow. Numerical experiments are performed using the data from multiple sources. The results show that, compared with the single measure, the proposed method has better performance for the short-term traffic flow prediction in terms of the accuracy and timeliness.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Anyu & Jiang, Xiao & Li, Yongfu & Zhang, Chao & Zhu, Hao, 2017. "Multiple sources and multiple measures based traffic flow prediction using the chaos theory and support vector regression method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 422-434.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:466:y:2017:i:c:p:422-434
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2016.09.041
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437116306574
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2016.09.041?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nagatani, Takashi, 1998. "Modified KdV equation for jamming transition in the continuum models of traffic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 599-607.
    2. Li, Yongfu & Kang, Yuhao & Yang, Bin & Peeta, Srinivas & Zhang, Li & Zheng, Taixong & Li, Yinguo, 2016. "A sliding mode controller for vehicular traffic flow," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 38-47.
    3. Tang, Tie-Qiao & He, Jia & Yang, Shi-Chun & Shang, Hua-Yan, 2014. "A car-following model accounting for the driver’s attribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 413(C), pages 583-591.
    4. Chen, Kuan-Yu, 2007. "Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(4), pages 423-432.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao & Lingling Pei, 2017. "Forecasting the Short-Term Traffic Flow in the Intelligent Transportation System Based on an Inertia Nonhomogenous Discrete Gray Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-16, July.
    2. Wu, Jiaxin & Zhou, Xubing & Peng, Yi & Zhao, Xiaojun, 2022. "Recurrence analysis of urban traffic congestion index on multi-scale," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    3. Su-qi Zhang & Kuo-Ping Lin, 2020. "Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on Data-Driven Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-17, January.
    4. Ling Shen & Jian Lu & Dongdong Geng & Ling Deng, 2020. "Peak Traffic Flow Predictions: Exploiting Toll Data from Large Expressway Networks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Zhang, Weibin & Zha, Huazhu & Zhang, Shuai & Ma, Lei, 2023. "Road section traffic flow prediction method based on the traffic factor state network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 618(C).
    6. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios & Bezzina, Frank, 2020. "Multi-fluctuation nonlinear patterns of European financial markets based on adaptive filtering with application to family business, green, Islamic, common stocks, and comparison with Bitcoin, NASDAQ, ," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 538(C).
    7. Elena Karnoukhova & Anastasia Stepanova & Maria Kokoreva, 2018. "The Influence Of The Ownership Structure On The Performance Of Innovative Companies In The Us," HSE Working papers WP BRP 70/FE/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    8. Cai, Lingru & Zhang, Zhanchang & Yang, Junjie & Yu, Yidan & Zhou, Teng & Qin, Jing, 2019. "A noise-immune Kalman filter for short-term traffic flow forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 536(C).
    9. Wang, Ke & Ma, Changxi & Qiao, Yihuan & Lu, Xijin & Hao, Weining & Dong, Sheng, 2021. "A hybrid deep learning model with 1DCNN-LSTM-Attention networks for short-term traffic flow prediction," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    10. Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao, 2019. "A Multimode Dynamic Short-Term Traffic Flow Grey Prediction Model of High-Dimension Tensors," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-18, June.
    11. Liu, Qingchao & Cai, Yingfeng & Jiang, Haobin & Lu, Jian & Chen, Long, 2018. "Traffic state prediction using ISOMAP manifold learning," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 532-541.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Redhu, Poonam & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2016. "Effect of forward looking sites on a multi-phase lattice hydrodynamic model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 445(C), pages 150-160.
    2. Chen, Can & Ge, Hongxia & Cheng, Rongjun, 2019. "Self-stabilizing analysis of an extended car-following model with consideration of expected effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    3. Redhu, Poonam & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2015. "Jamming transitions and the effect of interruption probability in a lattice traffic flow model with passing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 249-260.
    4. Qin, Shunda & He, Zhiting & Cheng, Rongjun, 2018. "An extended lattice hydrodynamic model based on control theory considering the memory effect of flux difference," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 809-816.
    5. Kaur, Ramanpreet & Sharma, Sapna, 2018. "Modeling and simulation of driver’s anticipation effect in a two lane system on curved road with slope," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 110-120.
    6. Kaur, Ramanpreet & Sharma, Sapna, 2017. "Analysis of driver’s characteristics on a curved road in a lattice model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 59-67.
    7. Li, Yongfu & Li, Kezhi & Zheng, Taixiong & Hu, Xiangdong & Feng, Huizong & Li, Yinguo, 2016. "Evaluating the performance of vehicular platoon control under different network topologies of initial states," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 450(C), pages 359-368.
    8. Sun, Yuqing & Ge, Hongxia & Cheng, Rongjun, 2018. "An extended car-following model under V2V communication environment and its delayed-feedback control," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 349-358.
    9. Guizzardi, Andrea & Mazzocchi, Mario, 2010. "Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 367-377.
    10. Mohan, Ranju & Ramadurai, Gitakrishnan, 2021. "Multi-class traffic flow model based on three dimensional flow–concentration surface," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 577(C).
    11. Yuan, Zijian & Wang, Tao & Zhang, Jing & Li, Shubin, 2022. "Influences of dynamic safe headway on car-following behavior," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    12. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”," AQR Working Papers 201502, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2015.
    13. Liu, Hui & Sun, Dihua & Liu, Weining, 2016. "Lattice hydrodynamic model based traffic control: A transportation cyber–physical system approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 795-801.
    14. Khatibinia, Mohsen & Javad Fadaee, Mohammad & Salajegheh, Javad & Salajegheh, Eysa, 2013. "Seismic reliability assessment of RC structures including soil–structure interaction using wavelet weighted least squares support vector machine," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 22-33.
    15. Hossain, Md. Anowar & Tanimoto, Jun, 2022. "A microscopic traffic flow model for sharing information from a vehicle to vehicle by considering system time delay effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 585(C).
    16. Zhou, Tong & Chen, Dong & Zheng, Linjiang & Liu, Weining & He, Yuchu & Liu, Zhongcheng, 2018. "Feedback-based control for coupled map car-following model with time delays on basis of linear discrete-time system," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 174-185.
    17. Zhou, Jibiao & Chen, Siyuan & Ma, Changxi & Dong, Sheng, 2022. "Stability analysis of pedestrian traffic flow in horizontal channels: A numerical simulation method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
    18. Mei, Yiru & Zhao, Xiaoqun & Qian, Yeqing & Xu, Shangzhi & Li, Zhipeng, 2021. "Effect of self-stabilizing control in lattice hydrodynamic model with on-ramp and off-ramp," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 575(C).
    19. Kaur, Ramanpreet & Sharma, Sapna, 2018. "Analyses of lattice hydrodynamic model using delayed feedback control with passing," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 446-455.
    20. Qingtao, Zhai & Hongxia, Ge & Rongjun, Cheng, 2018. "An extended continuum model considering optimal velocity change with memory and numerical tests," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 490(C), pages 774-785.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:466:y:2017:i:c:p:422-434. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.