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Forecasting the Short-Term Traffic Flow in the Intelligent Transportation System Based on an Inertia Nonhomogenous Discrete Gray Model

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  • Huiming Duan
  • Xinping Xiao
  • Lingling Pei

Abstract

The traffic-flow system has basic dynamic characteristics. This feature provides a theoretical basis for constructing a reasonable and effective model for the traffic-flow system. The research on short-term traffic-flow forecasting is of wide interest. Its results can be applied directly to advanced traffic information systems and traffic management, providing real-time and effective traffic information. According to the dynamic characteristics of traffic-flow data, this paper extends the mechanical properties, such as distance, acceleration, force combination, and decomposition, to the traffic-flow data vector. According to the mechanical properties of the data, this paper proposes four new models of structural parameters and component parameters, inertia nonhomogenous discrete gray models (referred to as INDGM), and analyzes the important properties of the model. This model examines the construction of the inertia nonhomogenous discrete gray model from the mechanical properties of the data, explaining the classic NDGM modeling mechanism in the meantime. Finally, this paper analyzes the traffic-flow data of Whitemud Drive in Canada and studies the relationship between the inertia model and the traffic-flow state according to the data analysis of the traffic-flow state. A simulation accuracy and prediction accuracy of up to 0.0248 and 0.0273, respectively, are obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao & Lingling Pei, 2017. "Forecasting the Short-Term Traffic Flow in the Intelligent Transportation System Based on an Inertia Nonhomogenous Discrete Gray Model," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-16, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:hin:complx:3515272
    DOI: 10.1155/2017/3515272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huiming Duan & Xinping Xiao, 2019. "A Multimode Dynamic Short-Term Traffic Flow Grey Prediction Model of High-Dimension Tensors," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-18, June.
    2. Wen-Ze Wu & Tao Zhang & Chengli Zheng, 2019. "A Novel Optimized Nonlinear Grey Bernoulli Model for Forecasting China’s GDP," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-10, October.
    3. Wu, Wenqing & Ma, Xin & Zeng, Bo & Wang, Yong & Cai, Wei, 2019. "Forecasting short-term renewable energy consumption of China using a novel fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 70-87.
    4. Duan, Huiming & Pang, Xinyu, 2021. "A multivariate grey prediction model based on energy logistic equation and its application in energy prediction in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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