IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v387y2008i4p876-888.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Tai-Liang
  • Cheng, Ching-Hsue
  • Teoh, Hia-Jong

Abstract

Stock investors usually make their short-term investment decisions according to recent stock information such as the late market news, technical analysis reports, and price fluctuations. To reflect these short-term factors which impact stock price, this paper proposes a comprehensive fuzzy time-series, which factors linear relationships between recent periods of stock prices and fuzzy logical relationships (nonlinear relationships) mined from time-series into forecasting processes. In empirical analysis, the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) and HSI (Heng Seng Index) are employed as experimental datasets, and four recent fuzzy time-series models, Chen’s (1996), Yu’s (2005), Cheng’s (2006) and Chen’s (2007), are used as comparison models. Besides, to compare with conventional statistic method, the method of least squares is utilized to estimate the auto-regressive models of the testing periods within the databases. From analysis results, the performance comparisons indicate that the multi-period adaptation model, proposed in this paper, can effectively improve the forecasting performance of conventional fuzzy time-series models which only factor fuzzy logical relationships in forecasting processes. From the empirical study, the traditional statistic method and the proposed model both reveal that stock price patterns in the Taiwan stock and Hong Kong stock markets are short-term.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Tai-Liang & Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Teoh, Hia-Jong, 2008. "High-order fuzzy time-series based on multi-period adaptation model for forecasting stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(4), pages 876-888.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:4:p:876-888
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2007.10.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S037843710701062X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2007.10.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    2. Yu, Hui-Kuang, 2005. "Weighted fuzzy time series models for TAIEX forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 349(3), pages 609-624.
    3. Yu, Hui-Kuang, 2005. "A refined fuzzy time-series model for forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 657-681.
    4. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Hui-Kuang, 2005. "A Type 2 fuzzy time series model for stock index forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 445-462.
    5. Chen, Tai-Liang & Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Jong Teoh, Hia, 2007. "Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 377-390.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lei Dong & Peng Wang & Fang Yan, 2019. "Damage forecasting based on multi-factor fuzzy time series and cloud model," Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 521-538, February.
    2. Jinliang Zhang & YiMing Wei & Zhong-fu Tan & Wang Ke & Wei Tian, 2017. "A Hybrid Method for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-10, April.
    3. Tai-Liang Chen & Ching-Hsue Cheng & Jing-Wei Liu, 2019. "A Causal Time-Series Model Based on Multilayer Perceptron Regression for Forecasting Taiwan Stock Index," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 18(06), pages 1967-1987, November.
    4. Tai-Liang Chen, 2012. "Forecasting the Taiwan Stock Market with a Novel Momentum-based Fuzzy Time-series," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 38-50, February.
    5. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Wei, Liang-Ying, 2014. "A novel time-series model based on empirical mode decomposition for forecasting TAIEX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 136-141.
    6. Angelo Garangau Menezes & Saulo Martiello Mastelini, 2021. "MegazordNet: combining statistical and machine learning standpoints for time series forecasting," Papers 2107.01017, arXiv.org.
    7. Wei, Liang-Ying, 2013. "A hybrid model based on ANFIS and adaptive expectation genetic algorithm to forecast TAIEX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 893-899.
    8. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Wei, Liang-Ying & Liu, Jing-Wei & Chen, Tai-Liang, 2013. "OWA-based ANFIS model for TAIEX forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 442-448.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tai-Liang Chen, 2012. "Forecasting the Taiwan Stock Market with a Novel Momentum-based Fuzzy Time-series," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 2, pages 38-50, February.
    2. Jilani, Tahseen Ahmed & Burney, Syed Muhammad Aqil, 2008. "A refined fuzzy time series model for stock market forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2857-2862.
    3. Chen, Tai-Liang & Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Jong Teoh, Hia, 2007. "Fuzzy time-series based on Fibonacci sequence for stock price forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 377-390.
    4. Wei, Liang-Ying, 2013. "A hybrid model based on ANFIS and adaptive expectation genetic algorithm to forecast TAIEX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 893-899.
    5. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang, 2006. "The application of neural networks to forecast fuzzy time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 363(2), pages 481-491.
    6. José Eduardo Medina Reyes & Agustín Ignacio Cabrera Llanos & Salvador Cruz Aké, 2023. "Fuzzy Gaussian GARCH and Fuzzy Gaussian EGARCH Models: Foreign Exchange Market Forecast," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 18(3), pages 1-22, Julio - S.
    7. Ni, Yensen & Wu, Manhwa & Day, Min-Yuh & Huang, Paoyu, 2020. "Do sharp movements in oil prices matter for stock markets?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    8. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Wei, Liang-Ying, 2014. "A novel time-series model based on empirical mode decomposition for forecasting TAIEX," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 136-141.
    9. Huarng, Kunhuang & Yu, Hui-Kuang, 2005. "A Type 2 fuzzy time series model for stock index forecasting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 445-462.
    10. Tai Vovan, 2019. "An improved fuzzy time series forecasting model using variations of data," Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 151-173, June.
    11. Cheng, Ching-Hsue & Wei, Liang-Ying & Liu, Jing-Wei & Chen, Tai-Liang, 2013. "OWA-based ANFIS model for TAIEX forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 442-448.
    12. Singh, S.R., 2008. "A computational method of forecasting based on fuzzy time series," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 539-554.
    13. Pal, Shanoli Samui & Kar, Samarjit, 2019. "Time series forecasting for stock market prediction through data discretization by fuzzistics and rule generation by rough set theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 18-30.
    14. Vedide Rezan USLU & Eren BAS & Ufuk YOLCU & Erol EGRIOGLU, 2013. "A New Fuzzy Time Series Analysis Approach By Using Differential Evolution Algorithm And Chronologically-Determined Weights," Journal of Social and Economic Statistics, Bucharest University of Economic Studies, vol. 2(1), pages 18-30, JULY.
    15. Dombi, József & Jónás, Tamás & Tóth, Zsuzsanna Eszter, 2018. "Modeling and long-term forecasting demand in spare parts logistics businesses," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 1-17.
    16. MOROSAN Adrian, 2018. "A Mathematical Model That Can Be Used By The Gamblers To Obtain Gains In The Industry Of Sports Betting," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 70(4), pages 68-78, September.
    17. Hunt, Richard A., 2021. "Entrepreneurial orientation and the fate of corporate acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 241-255.
    18. Lahmiri, Salim, 2016. "Interest rate next-day variation prediction based on hybrid feedforward neural network, particle swarm optimization, and multiresolution techniques," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 388-396.
    19. Zhou, Qin & Shang, Pengjian, 2020. "Weighted multiscale cumulative residual Rényi permutation entropy of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    20. Sulandari, Winita & Subanar, & Lee, Muhammad Hisyam & Rodrigues, Paulo Canas, 2020. "Indonesian electricity load forecasting using singular spectrum analysis, fuzzy systems and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:387:y:2008:i:4:p:876-888. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.