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The high-volume return premium and macro-economic factors in Indian market

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  • Singh, Harminder
  • Wang, Peipei
  • Hua, Vinh Duc Anh

Abstract

This study examines the predictability of high-volume return premium for future industrial production growth in the Indian securities market. While a small HVRP exists, its magnitude and significance are weaker than in the U.S. (Kaniel et al., 2012; Wang, 2021). The value-weighted premium (HVPVW) is significant only at the 10 % level, and the equal-weighted premium (HVPEW) at 5 %. Unlike the U.S., HVRP in India shows no predictive power for industrial production growth, with insignificant coefficients and negative adjusted R-square values. These findings highlight the limitations of applying developed market insights to emerging markets like India, where structural differences may weaken such relationships. This study underscores the importance of understanding local market dynamics in assessing financial anomalies.

Suggested Citation

  • Singh, Harminder & Wang, Peipei & Hua, Vinh Duc Anh, 2025. "The high-volume return premium and macro-economic factors in Indian market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pacfin:v:91:y:2025:i:c:s0927538x2500126x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.pacfin.2025.102789
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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