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Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment

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  • Dotsey, Michael
  • King, Robert G.

Abstract

This paper explores the implications of rational expectations and the aggregate supply theory advanced by Lucas (1973) for analysis of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty along the lines of Poole (1970), returning to a topic initially treated by Sargent and Wallace (1975). Not surprisingly, these two "classical"concepts alter both the menu of feasible policy choice and the desirability of certain policy actions. In our setup, unlike that of Sargent and Wallace (1975),the systematic component of monetary policy is a relevant determinant of the magnitudeof "business fluctuations" that arise from shocks to the system. Central bank behavior--both the selection of monetary instruments and the framing of overall policyrespJnse to economic conditions--can work to diminish or increase the magnitude of business fluctuations. However, the "activist" policies stressed by the present discussion bear little (if any) relationship to the policy options rationalized by the conventional analysis of monetary policy under uncertainty. In particular,in contrast to Poole's analysis, money supply responses to the nominal interestrate are not important determinants of real economic activity. Rather, the central bank should focus on policies that make movements in the general price level readily identifiable by economic agents.
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Suggested Citation

  • Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G., 1983. "Monetary instruments and policy rules in a rational expectations environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 357-382, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:12:y:1983:i:3:p:357-382
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    Cited by:

    1. Hetzel, Robert L., 1998. "U.S. monetary policy and monetary policy and the ESCB," ZEI Working Papers B 09-1998, University of Bonn, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies.
    2. Robert L. Hetzel, 2004. "How do central banks control inflation?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 90(Sum), pages 46-63.
    3. Robert L. Hetzel, 1993. "A quantity theory framework for monetary policy," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 35-48.
    4. Warren E. Weber, 1984. "Output variability in an open-economy macro model with variance-dependent parameters," Staff Report 94, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Peter Stemp, 1993. "Optimal money supply rules under asymmetric objective criteria," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 215-232, October.
    6. Robert L. Hetzel, 1986. "A critique of theories of money stock determination," Working Paper 86-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Michael Dotsey, 1991. "Open Market Operations in Australia: A US Perspective," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 67(3), pages 243-256, September.
    8. Joseph E. Gagnon & Dale W. Henderson, 1990. "Nominal interest rate pegging under alternative expectations hypotheses," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 438-473.
    9. Zijp, R. van, 1990. "New classical monetary business cycle theory," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    10. Robert L. Hetzel, 1988. "The monetary responsibilities of a central bank," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 74(Sep), pages 19-31.
    11. Jürgen Hagen & Manfred Neumann, 1990. "Relative price risk in an open economy with fixed and flexible exchange rates," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 269-289, October.
    12. Bali, Turan G. & Thurston, Thom B., 2002. "On the efficiency of monetary policy rules with flexible prices and rational expectations," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 615-631.
    13. Victor Argy & Anthony Brennan & Glenn Stevens, 1990. "Monetary Targeting: The International Experience," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 66(1), pages 37-62, March.
    14. Woon Gyu Choi & Yi Wen, 2010. "Dissecting Taylor Rules in a Structural VAR," IMF Working Papers 2010/020, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Bindseil, Ulrich, 1997. "Die Stabilisierungswirkungen von Mindestreserven," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1997,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Michael Dotsey, 1987. "Monetary control under alternative operating procedures," Working Paper 87-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. Boyd Iii, J.H. & Dotsey, M., 1990. "Interest Rate Rules And Nominal Determinacy," RCER Working Papers 222, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    18. Dotsey, Michael & King, Robert G, 1986. "Informational Implications of Interest Rate Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 33-42, March.

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