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Guessing the beliefs

  • Lefort, Jean-Philippe

A decision maker facing Knightian uncertainty is about to tell if he prefers an act X or Y. Two agents try to guess what he is going to do. All of them have preferences that achieve a separation of utility from beliefs. The only thing that the two agents do not know is the beliefs, so they evaluate them. We give a definition of "guessing better" and deal with its implications. We study particular cases as subjective expected utility and Choquet expected utility.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Mathematical Economics.

Volume (Year): 45 (2009)
Issue (Month): 12 (December)
Pages: 846-853

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Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:45:y:2009:i:12:p:846-853
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco

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  1. Ghirardato, Paolo & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo, 2005. "Certainty Independence and the Separation of Utility and Beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 129-136, January.
  2. Yaari, Menahem E, 1987. "The Dual Theory of Choice under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(1), pages 95-115, January.
  3. AUMANN, Robert J., . "Subjectivity and correlation in randomized strategies," CORE Discussion Papers RP -167, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  4. Gilboa, Itzhak & Lehrer, Ehud, 1991. "The value of information - An axiomatic approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 443-459.
  5. Chateauneuf, Alain, 1991. "On the use of capacities in modeling uncertainty aversion and risk aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 343-369.
  6. Lehrer, Ehud, 1998. "Comparison of experts," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 207-214, September.
  7. Schmeidler, David, 1989. "Subjective Probability and Expected Utility without Additivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 571-87, May.
  8. Daniel Ellsberg, 2000. "Risk, Ambiguity and the Savage Axioms," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7605, David K. Levine.
  9. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
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