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Long-run exclusion and the determination of cointegrating rank: Monte Carlo evidence

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  • Kurita, Takamitsu

Abstract

This note investigates long-run exclusion in a cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model from the viewpoint of finite-sample statistical inference. Monte Carlo experiments show that, in various circumstances, a mis-specified partial VAR model, which is justified by the existence of a long-run excluded variable, can lead to better finite-sample inference for cointegrating rank than a fully specified VAR model. Implications of long-run exclusion for econometric modelling are then considered based on the Monte Carlo study.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurita, Takamitsu, 2011. "Long-run exclusion and the determination of cointegrating rank: Monte Carlo evidence," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1733-1740.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:81:y:2011:i:9:p:1733-1740
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2011.01.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Takamitsu Kurita, 2007. "A dynamic econometric system for the real yen–dollar rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 115-149, July.
    2. Granger, Clive W J & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems and Persistent-Transitory Decompositions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 449-463, November.
    3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-328, August.
    4. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    5. Karim M. Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 163-182, January.
    6. Soren Johansen, 2002. "A Small Sample Correction for the Test of Cointegrating Rank in the Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1929-1961, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run exclusion; Cointegrating rank; Cointegrated vector autoregressive model; Monte Carlo experiment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

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