IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/matcom/v183y2021icp116-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling of photovoltaic power uncertainties for impact analysis on generation scheduling and cost of an urban micro grid

Author

Listed:
  • Wen, Xin
  • Abbes, Dhaker
  • Francois, Bruno

Abstract

In electrical systems, the main objective is to satisfy the load demand at the least cost without having imbalance between generation and consumption. Thus, the uncertainty of photovoltaic (PV) power production must be considered in generation planning of a power system. In this paper, we develop a modeling method of this uncertainty to consider it into the generation scheduling. The optimal generation scheduling in an urban microgrid is made by taking in consideration the operating reserve provision under stochastic characteristics of PV power prediction. By considering a prescribed risk level of unbalancing, a dynamic programming algorithm sets the operational planning of conventional generators by solving a non-convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming model, so that the operational cost and available operating reserve can be calculated. Then, the effect of PV power uncertainty into the unit commitment is analyzed by considering PV forecast intervals with a 95 % confidence level. The unit commitment is then recalculated with new generator set points and the same criteria. Finally, variations of the targeted minimized costs and obtained OR is analyzed according to the uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen, Xin & Abbes, Dhaker & Francois, Bruno, 2021. "Modeling of photovoltaic power uncertainties for impact analysis on generation scheduling and cost of an urban micro grid," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 116-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:183:y:2021:i:c:p:116-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2020.02.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378475420300628
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.matcom.2020.02.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yan, Xingyu & Abbes, Dhaker & Francois, Bruno, 2017. "Uncertainty analysis for day ahead power reserve quantification in an urban microgrid including PV generators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    2. Baziar, Aliasghar & Kavousi-Fard, Abdollah, 2013. "Considering uncertainty in the optimal energy management of renewable micro-grids including storage devices," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 158-166.
    3. Juan M. Morales & Antonio J. Conejo & Henrik Madsen & Pierre Pinson & Marco Zugno, 2014. "Integrating Renewables in Electricity Markets," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, edition 127, number 978-1-4614-9411-9, September.
    4. Erdinc, Ozan & Paterakis, Nikolaos G. & Catalão, João P.S., 2015. "Overview of insular power systems under increasing penetration of renewable energy sources: Opportunities and challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 333-346.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zou, Bin & Peng, Jinqing & Yin, Rongxin & Li, Houpei & Li, Sihui & Yan, Jinyue & Yang, Hongxing, 2022. "Capacity configuration of distributed photovoltaic and battery system for office buildings considering uncertainties," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    2. Capper, Timothy & Gorbatcheva, Anna & Mustafa, Mustafa A. & Bahloul, Mohamed & Schwidtal, Jan Marc & Chitchyan, Ruzanna & Andoni, Merlinda & Robu, Valentin & Montakhabi, Mehdi & Scott, Ian J. & Franci, 2022. "Peer-to-peer, community self-consumption, and transactive energy: A systematic literature review of local energy market models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zheng, Yingying & Jenkins, Bryan M. & Kornbluth, Kurt & Træholt, Chresten, 2018. "Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 204-217.
    2. Fontenot, Hannah & Dong, Bing, 2019. "Modeling and control of building-integrated microgrids for optimal energy management – A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    3. Christos N. Dimitriadis & Evangelos G. Tsimopoulos & Michael C. Georgiadis, 2021. "A Review on the Complementarity Modelling in Competitive Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-27, November.
    4. Ramos-Real, Francisco J. & Ramírez-Díaz, Alfredo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Perez, Yannick, 2018. "Willingness to pay for electric vehicles in island regions: The case of Tenerife (Canary Islands)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 140-149.
    5. Briguglio, Marie & Formosa, Glenn, 2017. "When households go solar: Determinants of uptake of a Photovoltaic Scheme and policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 154-162.
    6. Josue Campos do Prado & Wei Qiao & Liyan Qu & Julio Romero Agüero, 2019. "The Next-Generation Retail Electricity Market in the Context of Distributed Energy Resources: Vision and Integrating Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-24, February.
    7. Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial & Kaya, Murat & Sahin, Guvenc, 2017. "Competition, risk and learning in electricity markets: An agent-based simulation study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 1000-1011.
    8. Bhowmik, Chiranjib & Bhowmik, Sumit & Ray, Amitava & Pandey, Krishna Murari, 2017. "Optimal green energy planning for sustainable development: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 796-813.
    9. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    10. Segurado, R. & Madeira, J.F.A. & Costa, M. & Duić, N. & Carvalho, M.G., 2016. "Optimization of a wind powered desalination and pumped hydro storage system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 487-499.
    11. Psarros, Georgios N. & Papathanassiou, Stavros A., 2023. "Generation scheduling in island systems with variable renewable energy sources: A literature review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1105-1124.
    12. Nielsen, Maria Grønnegaard & Morales, Juan Miguel & Zugno, Marco & Pedersen, Thomas Engberg & Madsen, Henrik, 2016. "Economic valuation of heat pumps and electric boilers in the Danish energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 189-200.
    13. Eva Lucas Segarra & Germán Ramos Ruiz & Vicente Gutiérrez González & Antonis Peppas & Carlos Fernández Bandera, 2020. "Impact Assessment for Building Energy Models Using Observed vs. Third-Party Weather Data Sets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    14. Polleux, Louis & Guerassimoff, Gilles & Marmorat, Jean-Paul & Sandoval-Moreno, John & Schuhler, Thierry, 2022. "An overview of the challenges of solar power integration in isolated industrial microgrids with reliability constraints," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Zhao, Bo & Xue, Meidong & Zhang, Xuesong & Wang, Caisheng & Zhao, Junhui, 2015. "An MAS based energy management system for a stand-alone microgrid at high altitude," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 251-261.
    16. Ben Christopher, S.J. & Carolin Mabel, M., 2020. "A bio-inspired approach for probabilistic energy management of micro-grid incorporating uncertainty in statistical cost estimation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    17. Boukettaya, Ghada & Krichen, Lotfi, 2014. "A dynamic power management strategy of a grid connected hybrid generation system using wind, photovoltaic and Flywheel Energy Storage System in residential applications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 148-159.
    18. e Silva, Danilo P. & Félix Salles, José L. & Fardin, Jussara F. & Rocha Pereira, Maxsuel M., 2020. "Management of an island and grid-connected microgrid using hybrid economic model predictive control with weather data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    19. Andrychowicz, Mateusz & Olek, Blazej & Przybylski, Jakub, 2017. "Review of the methods for evaluation of renewable energy sources penetration and ramping used in the Scenario Outlook and Adequacy Forecast 2015. Case study for Poland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 703-714.
    20. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Andersson, Jonas & Serletis, Apostolos, 2017. "Electricity prices, large-scale renewable integration, and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 550-560.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:183:y:2021:i:c:p:116-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.