Climate change drives agricultural land use competition in the Paranapanema River Basin, Southeastern Brazil

To meet the growing global demands for food and biofuels, Brazilian soybean and sugarcane production must expand. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of how climate-induced shifts will drive competition for agricultural land in critical regions is essential for sustainable development. Here, we investigate this potential conflict in the Paranapanema River Basin (PRB), focusing on the competition between soybean and sugarcane planted areas and analyzing how temperature and rainfall seasonality influence land-use decisions. Using predictive modeling, we simulate agricultural land-use changes for 2030, 2040, and 2050 under three climate scenarios (Baseline, SSP 2–4.5, and SSP 5–8.5). Our findings reveal that climate change will significantly reshape agricultural land-use dynamics in the PRB. Rising temperatures generally favor the conversion of pasture, soybean, and mosaic areas to sugarcane, but constrain soybean cultivation. Sugarcane thrives under moderate rainfall seasonality, while soybean expansion is suppressed under moderate (SSP 2–4.5) and high emissions (SSP 5–8.5) scenarios, while sugarcane area expands and pastureland consistently declines. Those trends reflect land-use policy constraints and favor carbon mitigation due to increase biofuel production. The mosaic area remains stable under the Baseline but decreases under the SSP scenarios. The shift from soybean to sugarcane, coupled with the decline in pastureland, underscores the dual pressures of economic demands and climate adaptation. These dynamics could have broader implications for Brazil’s agricultural exports, highlighting the need for diversification and climate-resilient practices. Policymakers must prioritize integrated strategies that balance agricultural productivity with environmental sustainability, while also promoting diversification to reduce reliance on a small number of commodities.