A stakeholder-integrated land-use model for nature conservation in metropolitan areas: The case of the Randstad, Netherlands

Accurate understanding and modelling of complex nature land dynamics is essential for effective nature conservation and land-use planning, particularly in and around metropolitan areas where diverse land-use demands compete for limited space. However, existing modelling frameworks often overlook stakeholder interactions by relying solely on spatial drivers such as land suitability, and tend to oversimplify land-use dynamics by focusing on a single land-use type, ignoring the competing pressures from other land uses. To address this gap, this study proposes a stakeholder-integrated land-use competition (SI-LUC) model that integrates stakeholder interactions, defined by decision-making and negotiation processes, into a multi-type land-use competition framework. The model was applied to simulate nature land dynamics in the Randstad metropolitan area from 2012 to 2023. Results show that SI-LUC improves simulation performance compared to a widely used conventional model, achieving around 5% increase in the global Figure of Merit (FoM). Moreover, the sensitivity analysis confirms the effectiveness of stakeholder-related parameters in SI-LUC, such as negotiation costs and thresholds to agree, in regulating the intensity of stakeholder interactions and shaping nature land changes. Additionally, the scenario analysis highlights the model’s potential as a virtual laboratory for testing governance strategies on nature conservation, enabling decision-makers assess the long-term effects of different nature governance approaches and facilitating a more informed, context-sensitive land-use planning in complex urban contexts.