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The dynamics of shifting cultivation captured in an extended Constrained Cellular Automata land use model

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  • Wickramasuriya, Rohan Chandralal
  • Bregt, Arnold K.
  • van Delden, Hedwig
  • Hagen-Zanker, Alex

Abstract

This paper presents an extension to the Constrained Cellular Automata (CCA) land use model of White et al. [White, R., Engelen, G., Uljee, I., 1997. The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24(3), 323–343] to make it better suited for modelling the dynamics of shifting cultivation. In the extended model the time passed since the last land use transition of a location is a factor of its land use potential. The model can now account for the gradual decrease in soil fertility after an area of forest has been cleared for cultivation and also capture the process of regeneration once the plot is fallowed. The model is applied for the Ruhunupura area of Sri Lanka where chena, a particular practice of shifting cultivation, is a common land use that dominates the landscape dynamics. The model is calibrated for the period 1985–2001 and the results are assessed in terms of location to location overlap as well as structural similarity at multiple scales. These results give confidence in the representation of land use dynamics for the main land use classes. On the basis of a long term scenario run for the period 2001–2030, it is verified that the model captures stylized facts related to chena dynamics, in particular shortening fallow periods and increasingly long cultivation periods of chena, as a result of increasing land use pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Wickramasuriya, Rohan Chandralal & Bregt, Arnold K. & van Delden, Hedwig & Hagen-Zanker, Alex, 2009. "The dynamics of shifting cultivation captured in an extended Constrained Cellular Automata land use model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(18), pages 2302-2309.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:18:p:2302-2309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.05.021
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    4. Yong Lai & Guangqing Huang & Shengzhong Chen & Shaotao Lin & Wenjun Lin & Jixin Lyu, 2021. "Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, March.
    5. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    6. van Vliet, Jasper & Hagen-Zanker, Alex & Hurkens, Jelle & van Delden, Hedwig, 2013. "A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 32-42.
    7. Lesong Zhao & Guangsheng Liu & Chunlong Xian & Jiaqi Nie & Yao Xiao & Zhigang Zhou & Xiting Li & Hongmei Wang, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-20, July.
    8. Luoman Pu & Jiuchun Yang & Lingxue Yu & Changsheng Xiong & Fengqin Yan & Yubo Zhang & Shuwen Zhang, 2021. "Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Zhang, Rui & Tian, Qing & Jiang, Luguang & Crooks, Andrew & Qi, Shuhua & Yang, Ruixin, 2018. "Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 248-260.
    10. Kovalevsky, Dmitry V. & Hewitt, Richard J, 2020. "Integrating actor dynamics with land use cellular automata for modelling climate and environmental policy implementation at regional level," SocArXiv 5wsng, Center for Open Science.
    11. Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han & Ping Feng & Yongjie Wang, 2022. "Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1305-1337, January.
    12. Bernardo Alves Furtado & Dick Ettema & Ricardo Machado Ruiz & Jelle Hurkens & Hedwig van Delden, 2012. "A Cellular Automata Intraurban Model with Prices and Income-Dif Erentiated Actors," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(5), pages 897-924, October.
    13. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    14. Jasper van Vliet & Jelle Hurkens & Roger White & Hedwig van Delden, 2012. "An Activity-Based Cellular Automaton Model to Simulate Land-Use Dynamics," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(2), pages 198-212, April.

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