IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v220y2009i18p2302-2309.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The dynamics of shifting cultivation captured in an extended Constrained Cellular Automata land use model

Author

Listed:
  • Wickramasuriya, Rohan Chandralal
  • Bregt, Arnold K.
  • van Delden, Hedwig
  • Hagen-Zanker, Alex

Abstract

This paper presents an extension to the Constrained Cellular Automata (CCA) land use model of White et al. [White, R., Engelen, G., Uljee, I., 1997. The use of constrained cellular automata for high-resolution modelling of urban land-use dynamics. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design 24(3), 323–343] to make it better suited for modelling the dynamics of shifting cultivation. In the extended model the time passed since the last land use transition of a location is a factor of its land use potential. The model can now account for the gradual decrease in soil fertility after an area of forest has been cleared for cultivation and also capture the process of regeneration once the plot is fallowed. The model is applied for the Ruhunupura area of Sri Lanka where chena, a particular practice of shifting cultivation, is a common land use that dominates the landscape dynamics. The model is calibrated for the period 1985–2001 and the results are assessed in terms of location to location overlap as well as structural similarity at multiple scales. These results give confidence in the representation of land use dynamics for the main land use classes. On the basis of a long term scenario run for the period 2001–2030, it is verified that the model captures stylized facts related to chena dynamics, in particular shortening fallow periods and increasingly long cultivation periods of chena, as a result of increasing land use pressure.

Suggested Citation

  • Wickramasuriya, Rohan Chandralal & Bregt, Arnold K. & van Delden, Hedwig & Hagen-Zanker, Alex, 2009. "The dynamics of shifting cultivation captured in an extended Constrained Cellular Automata land use model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(18), pages 2302-2309.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:18:p:2302-2309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.05.021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380009003883
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2009.05.021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K C Clarke & S Hoppen & L Gaydos, 1997. "A Self-Modifying Cellular Automaton Model of Historical Urbanization in the San Francisco Bay Area," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 24(2), pages 247-261, April.
    2. Liu, Xiaoping & Li, Xia & Shi, Xun & Wu, Shaokun & Liu, Tao, 2008. "Simulating complex urban development using kernel-based non-linear cellular automata," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 211(1), pages 169-181.
    3. M Batty, 1998. "Urban Evolution on the Desktop: Simulation with the Use of Extended Cellular Automata," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 30(11), pages 1943-1967, November.
    4. Yumiko Wada & Krishnan S Rajan & Ryosuke Shibasaki, 2007. "Modelling the Spatial Distribution of Shifting Cultivation in Luangprabang, Lao PDR," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(2), pages 261-278, April.
    5. Daniel Stevens & Suzana Dragićević, 2007. "A GIS-Based Irregular Cellular Automata Model of Land-Use Change," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 34(4), pages 708-724, August.
    6. Sulistyawati, Endah & Noble, Ian R. & Roderick, Michael L., 2005. "A simulation model to study land use strategies in swidden agriculture systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 271-288, September.
    7. Albers, Heidi J., 1996. "Modeling Ecological Constraints on Tropical Forest Management: Spatial Interdependence, Irreversibility, and Uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 73-94, January.
    8. Mathey, Anne-Hélène & Krcmar, Emina & Dragicevic, Suzana & Vertinsky, Ilan, 2008. "An object-oriented cellular automata model for forest planning problems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(3), pages 359-371.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yan & Chang, Xia & Liu, Yanfang & Lu, Yanchi & Wang, Yiheng & Liu, Yaolin, 2021. "Urban expansion simulation under constraint of multiple ecosystem services (MESs) based on cellular automata (CA)-Markov model: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    2. Changsheng Xiong & Volker Beckmann & Rong Tan, 2018. "Effects of Infrastructure on Land Use and Land Cover Change (LUCC): The Case of Hangzhou International Airport, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-18, June.
    3. Jie Liu & Lang Zhang & Qingping Zhang, 2019. "The Development Simulation of Urban Green Space System Layout Based on the Land Use Scenario: A Case Study of Xuchang City, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Yong Lai & Guangqing Huang & Shengzhong Chen & Shaotao Lin & Wenjun Lin & Jixin Lyu, 2021. "Land Use Dynamics and Optimization from 2000 to 2020 in East Guangdong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, March.
    5. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    6. Haixia Zhao & Binjie Gu & Xin Li & Mingjie Niu, 2024. "Evolution and Optimization Simulation of Coastal Chemical Industry Layout: A Case Study of Jiangsu Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-18, March.
    7. Lesong Zhao & Guangsheng Liu & Chunlong Xian & Jiaqi Nie & Yao Xiao & Zhigang Zhou & Xiting Li & Hongmei Wang, 2022. "Simulation of Land Use Pattern Based on Land Ecological Security: A Case Study of Guangzhou, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-20, July.
    8. van Vliet, Jasper & Hagen-Zanker, Alex & Hurkens, Jelle & van Delden, Hedwig, 2013. "A fuzzy set approach to assess the predictive accuracy of land use simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 261, pages 32-42.
    9. Luoman Pu & Jiuchun Yang & Lingxue Yu & Changsheng Xiong & Fengqin Yan & Yubo Zhang & Shuwen Zhang, 2021. "Simulating Land-Use Changes and Predicting Maize Potential Yields in Northeast China for 2050," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-21, January.
    10. Zhang, Rui & Tian, Qing & Jiang, Luguang & Crooks, Andrew & Qi, Shuhua & Yang, Ruixin, 2018. "Projecting cropping patterns around Poyang lake and prioritizing areas for policy intervention to promote rice: A cellular automata model," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 248-260.
    11. Kovalevsky, Dmitry V. & Hewitt, Richard J, 2020. "Integrating actor dynamics with land use cellular automata for modelling climate and environmental policy implementation at regional level," SocArXiv 5wsng, Center for Open Science.
    12. Xu Chen & Ruiguang Han & Ping Feng & Yongjie Wang, 2022. "Combined effects of predicted climate and land use changes on future hydrological droughts in the Luanhe River basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 110(2), pages 1305-1337, January.
    13. Bernardo Alves Furtado & Dick Ettema & Ricardo Machado Ruiz & Jelle Hurkens & Hedwig van Delden, 2012. "A Cellular Automata Intraurban Model with Prices and Income-Dif Erentiated Actors," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(5), pages 897-924, October.
    14. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).
    15. Jasper van Vliet & Jelle Hurkens & Roger White & Hedwig van Delden, 2012. "An Activity-Based Cellular Automaton Model to Simulate Land-Use Dynamics," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(2), pages 198-212, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cong Cao & Suzana Dragićević & Songnian Li, 2019. "Short-Term Forecasting of Land Use Change Using Recurrent Neural Network Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-18, September.
    2. Plantinga, Andrew J. & Provencher, Bill, 2001. "Internal Consistency In Models Of Optimal Resource Use Under Uncertainty," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20712, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    4. Erik Nelson & Virginia Matzek, 2016. "Carbon Credits Compete Poorly With Agricultural Commodities In An Optimized Model Of Land Use In Northern California," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 1-24, November.
    5. Christopher Costello & Nicolas Querou & Agnès Tomini, 2014. "Spatial concessions with limited tenure," Post-Print hal-01123392, HAL.
    6. Jens Abildtrup & Jacques-Alexandre Laye & Maximilien Laye & Anne Stenger, 2012. "Irreversibility and Uncertainty in Multifunctional Forest Management Allocation," Post-Print hal-01072290, HAL.
    7. Bruce McGough & Andrew J. Plantinga & Bill Provencher, 2004. "The Dynamic Behavior of Efficient Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 95-108.
    8. Carter, Michael R. & Zimmerman, Frederick J., 2000. "The dynamic cost and persistence of asset inequality in an agrarian economy," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 265-302, December.
    9. Gong, Jian-zhou & Liu, Yan-sui & Xia, Bei-cheng & Zhao, Guan-wei, 2009. "Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting, based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3612-3620.
    10. Robert Deacon & Charles Kolstad & Allen Kneese & David Brookshire & David Scrogin & Anthony Fisher & Michael Ward & Kerry Smith & James Wilen, 1998. "Research Trends and Opportunities in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 11(3), pages 383-397, April.
    11. Rauscher, Michael & Barbier, Edward B., 2010. "Biodiversity and geography," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 241-260, April.
    12. Di Traglia, Mario & Attorre, Fabio & Francesconi, Fabio & Valenti, Roberto & Vitale, Marcello, 2011. "Is cellular automata algorithm able to predict the future dynamical shifts of tree species in Italy under climate change scenarios? A methodological approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 925-934.
    13. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    14. Zhiwei Deng & Bin Quan, 2022. "Intensity Characteristics and Multi-Scenario Projection of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Hengyang, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(14), pages 1-18, July.
    15. Liu, Dongya & Zheng, Xinqi & Zhang, Chunxiao & Wang, Hongbin, 2017. "A new temporal–spatial dynamics method of simulating land-use change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 350(C), pages 1-10.
    16. Warziniack, Travis & Sims, Charles & Haas, Jessica, 2019. "Fire and the joint production of ecosystem services: A spatial-dynamic optimization approach," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Parker, Dawn Cassandra, 2007. "Revealing "space" in spatial externalities: Edge-effect externalities and spatial incentives," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 84-99, July.
    18. Brian Pickard & Joshua Gray & Ross Meentemeyer, 2017. "Comparing Quantity, Allocation and Configuration Accuracy of Multiple Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, August.
    19. Eda Ustaoglu & Brendan Williams & Laura O. Petrov & Harutyun Shahumyan & Hedwig Van Delden, 2017. "Developing and Assessing Alternative Land-Use Scenarios from the MOLAND Model: A Scenario-Based Impact Analysis Approach for the Evaluation of Rapid Rail Provisions and Urban Development in the Greate," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, December.
    20. A’kif AL-FUGARA & Abdel Rahman AL-SHABEEB & Yahya AL-SHAWABKEH & Hani AL-AMOUSH & Rida AL-ADAMAT, 2018. "Simulation And Prediction Of Urban Spatial Expansion In Highly Vibrant Cities Using The Sleuth Model: A Case Study Of Amman Metropolitan, Jordan," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 13(1), pages 37-56, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:220:y:2009:i:18:p:2302-2309. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.