Spatio-temporal analysis of vegetation cover transitions and underlying governance approaches in Malawi, Southern Africa

Forest-based solutions, such as forest landscape restoration (FLR), are increasingly emphasized in response to the interrelated crises of deforestation, biodiversity loss, and climate change. However, there is notable lack of attention to the relationship between forest governance approaches and forest transitions. In many African countries, little is known about how various forest governance models affect changes in vegetation cover over time. Leveraging remote sensing techniques and time-series analysis, we examine the changing patterns of vegetation cover from 2003 to 2021 across Malawi, where distinct governance approaches have been implemented within and across protected areas and communal lands. The analysis revealed varying patterns and magnitudes of greening (vegetation gain) and browning (vegetation loss) across different periods, seasons, locations, and scales. Our findings indicate a significant increase in greenness during 2003–2009 in districts where community-based forest management (CBFM) programs were implemented. Conversely, the extent of vegetation greening was mixed during 2005–2014 in areas where combined CBFM and forest co-management (FCoM) were the primary participatory forest governance models implemented. The FCoM governance model implemented solely during 2014–2019 was associated with very little vegetation greening. Our study offers insights into vegetation cover changes over specific timeframes, with a deeper understanding of how different participatory forest governance models have influenced these transitions. Specifically, our evidence demonstrates a positive association of CBFM with improvements in vegetation cover. This underscores the importance of strongly centering local communities in the implementation and monitoring processes of forest-based solutions, with increased power devolution, empowered self-governance authority, and stronger resource ownership rights. Consequently, an effective implementation of Malawi's FLR strategy should prioritize institutional models that fully devolve power to local community with adequate means for self-governance while granting secure resource rights. However, additional factors that would sustain observed greening outcomes require further investigation using modeling approaches.