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The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Huang, Zhenyu
  • Duan, Qianwen
  • Jin, Jizhong
  • Tan, Minghong
  • Wang, Xue
  • Xin, Liangjie
  • Li, Xiubin

Abstract

Accelerated urbanization in China has prompted sustained population outflow from mountainous regions, intensifying cropland abandonment and threatening food security. Using a Random Forest model, this study analyzed the influencing factors behind cropland abandonment in China’s mountainous areas from 2000 to 2020. Multiple data sources and SSP-RCP scenarios were integrated to project abandonment patterns and associated losses in food productivity through 2050. The findings indicate an abandonment rate of 18.7 % during this period and show marked spatial variation. The rate was associated with higher cropland fragmentation, irregular shape, and poor connectivity. Under the high-forcing SSP5–8.5 scenario, the abandonment rate may rise to 36.8 % by 2050, which could reduce national food productivity by 11.3 %. Notably, high-productivity croplands in these areas are being lost at an accelerating pace, with the abandonment rate projected to increase from 5.1 % in 2020 to 17.6 % by 2050. This study provides a scientific foundation for understanding abandonment processes and formulating more targeted cropland protection and food security strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Zhenyu & Duan, Qianwen & Jin, Jizhong & Tan, Minghong & Wang, Xue & Xin, Liangjie & Li, Xiubin, 2026. "The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:164:y:2026:i:c:s0264837726000359
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951
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    References listed on IDEAS

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