IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v14y2025i6p1311-d1682928.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China

Author

Listed:
  • Mingyong Zuo

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Guoxiang Liu

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Chuangli Jing

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China
    Survey and Planning Research Center of Sichuan Institute of Geological Survey, Chengdu 621109, China)

  • Rui Zhang

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Xiaowen Wang

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Wenfei Mao

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Li Shen

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

  • Keren Dai

    (The State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China)

  • Xiaodan Wu

    (Faculty of Geosciences and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610097, China)

Abstract

Cropland abandonment (CA) has become a significant threat to agricultural sustainability, particularly in metropolitan suburbs where urban expansion and cropland preservation often conflict. This study examines the Chengdu Directly Administered Zone of the Tianfu New Area in Sichuan Province, China, as a case study, utilizing high-precision vector data from China’s 2019–2023 National Land Survey to identify abandoned croplands through land use change trajectory analysis. By integrating kernel density estimation, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and geographically weighted regression modeling, we quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of CA and the spatial heterogeneity of driving factors in the study area. The results demonstrate an average annual abandonment rate of approximately 8%, exhibiting minor fluctuations but significant spatial clustering characteristics, with abandonment hotspots concentrated in peri-urban areas that gradually expanded toward urban cores over time, while exurban regions showed lower abandonment rates. Cropland quality and the aggregation index were identified as key restraining factors, whereas increasing slope and land development intensity were found to elevate abandonment risks. Notably, distance to roads displayed a negative effect, contrary to conventional understanding, revealing that policy feedback mechanisms induced by anticipated land expropriation along transportation corridors serve as important drivers of suburban abandonment. This study provides a scientific basis for optimizing resilient urban–rural land allocation, curbing speculative abandonment, and exploring integrated “agriculture + ecology + cultural tourism” utilization models for abandoned lands. The findings offer valuable insights for balancing food security and sustainable development in rapidly urbanizing regions worldwide, particularly providing empirical references for developing countries addressing the dilemma between urban expansion and cropland preservation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mingyong Zuo & Guoxiang Liu & Chuangli Jing & Rui Zhang & Xiaowen Wang & Wenfei Mao & Li Shen & Keren Dai & Xiaodan Wu, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Factors of Cropland Abandonment in Metropolitan Suburbs: A Case Study of Chengdu Directly Administered Zone, Tianfu New Area, Sichuan Province, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-23, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:6:p:1311-:d:1682928
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1311/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/14/6/1311/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ore Koren & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "From global to local, food insecurity is associated with contemporary armed conflicts," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 999-1010, October.
    2. Hong, Changqiao & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Bavorova, Miroslava, 2024. "Cropland abandonment in mountainous China: Patterns and determinants at multiple scales and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Weiying Ren & Aoxi Yang & Yahui Wang, 2024. "Spatial Patterns, Drivers, and Sustainable Utilization of Terrace Abandonment in Mountainous Areas of Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-16, February.
    4. Artur Gafurov & Maxim Ivanov, 2024. "Deep Learning and Remote Sensing for Restoring Abandoned Agricultural Lands in the Middle Volga (Russia)," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-16, November.
    5. Rui Zhou & Mingbo Ji & Shaoyang Zhao, 2024. "Does E-Commerce Participation among Farming Households Affect Farmland Abandonment? Evidence from a Large-Scale Survey in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-23, March.
    6. Zheng, Linyi, 2024. "Big hands holding small hands: The role of new agricultural operating entities in farmland abandonment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Yiming Sang & Liangjie Xin, 2023. "Factors Determining Concurrent Reclamation and Abandonment of Cultivated Land on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-17, May.
    8. Xiaojian Li & Linbing Ma & Xi Liu, 2025. "Identification, Mechanism and Countermeasures of Cropland Abandonment in Northeast Guangdong Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Nan Zheng & Le Li & Lijian Han & Xiufang Zhu & Kefei Zhao & Ziyang Zhu & Xiaolan Ye, 2024. "The Relationship between Farmland Abandonment and Urbanization Processes: A Case Study in Four Chinese Urban Agglomerations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-22, May.
    10. Zhang, Ying & Li, Xiubin & Shi, Tiechou & Li, Hongwei & Zhai, Liang, 2023. "Understanding cropland abandonment from economics within a representative village and its empirical analysis in Chinese mountainous areas," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    11. He, Yafen & Xie, Hualin & Peng, Chaozhong, 2020. "Analyzing the behavioural mechanism of farmland abandonment in the hilly mountainous areas in China from the perspective of farming household diversity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    12. Giulia Ronchetti & Martina Aiello, 2025. "Potential of Abandoned Agricultural Lands for New Photovoltaic Installations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-19, January.
    13. Calafat-Marzal, Consuelo & Sánchez-García, Mercedes & Gallego-Salguero, Aurea & Piñeiro, Veronica, 2023. "Drivers of winegrowers' decision on land use abandonment based on exploratory spatial data analysis and multilevel models," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    14. Ojha, Roshan Babu & Atreya, Kishor & Kristiansen, Paul & Devkota, Deepa & Wilson, Brian, 2022. "A systematic review and gap analysis of drivers, impacts, and restoration options for abandoned croplands in Nepal," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Yali Wei & Junjie Wen & Qunchao Zhou & Yan Zhang & Gaocheng Dong, 2024. "Mapping Cropland Abandonment in the Cloudy Hilly Regions Surrounding the Southwest Basin of China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, April.
    16. Wiśniewska-Paluszak, J. & Paluszak, G. & Fiore, M. & Coticchio, A. & Galati, A. & Lira, J., 2023. "Urban agriculture business models and value propositions: Mixed methods approach based on evidence from Polish and Italian case studies," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buting Hong & Jicheng Wang & Jiangtao Xiao & Quanzhi Yuan & Ping Ren, 2025. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Determinants of Cropland Abandonment in Mountainous Regions of China: A Case Study of Sichuan Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Lu, Dan & Su, Kangchuan & Wang, Zhanpeng & Hou, Mengjie & Li, Xinxin & Lin, Aiwen & Yang, Qingyuan, 2025. "Patterns and drivers of terrace abandonment in China: Monitoring based on multi-source remote sensing data," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    3. Pengjing Zhang & Tao Xiong, 2025. "Can Agricultural Subsidies Reduce Cropland Abandonment in Rural China?," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-21, April.
    4. Sun, Yong & Miao, Yiling & Xie, Zhiju & Jiang, Xingling, 2025. "Address the challenge of cultivated land abandonment by cultivated land adoption: An evolutionary game perspective," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    5. Xiaojian Li & Linbing Ma & Xi Liu, 2025. "Identification, Mechanism and Countermeasures of Cropland Abandonment in Northeast Guangdong Province," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Song, Wei & Yang, Dazhi & Wang, Yanwei, 2024. "Integrating an abandoned farmland simulation model (AFSM) using system dynamics and CLUE-S for sustainable agriculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    7. Hong, Changqiao & Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Bavorova, Miroslava, 2024. "Cropland abandonment in mountainous China: Patterns and determinants at multiple scales and policy implications," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    8. Zebin Chen & Yonglin Chen & Chenhui Zhu & Yunping Zhang & Xiang Kong, 2025. "Determinants of Farmland Abandonment Among Peasants in Scattered Villages: The Impact of Family Structure and Social Policies in Southern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-18, April.
    9. Song, Hengfei & Li, Xiubin & Xin, Liangjie & Wang, Xue, 2025. "Improving mechanization conditions or encouraging non-grain crop production? Strategies for mitigating farmland abandonment in China’s mountainous areas," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    10. Lanping Tang & Ge Shen & Min Cheng & Chengchao Zuo & Feiyang Li & Hang Liu & Shaohua Wu, 2024. "Spillover Impacts of the Utilization of Winter Fallow Fields on Grain Production and Carbon Emissions," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
    11. Koppenberg, Maximilian & Mishra, Ashok K. & Hirsch, Stefan, 2023. "Food Aid and Violent Conflict: A Review of Literature," IZA Discussion Papers 16574, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Yue Zhang & Guihua Liu & Zhixing Ma & Xin Deng & Jiahao Song & Dingde Xu, 2022. "The Influence of Land Attachment on Land Abandonment from the Perspective of Generational Difference: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-15, September.
    13. Kafle, Sagar & Poudel, Bibek & Gyawali, Purushottam & Bhattarai, Dilli Ram & Acharya, Tri Dev & Acharya, Rupesh & Dhakal, Saurav & Pradhan, Prajal & Adhikari, Sushil, 2025. "Industrial hemp in Nepal: Production and valorization perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    14. Prishchepov, Alexander V. & Ponkina, Elena V. & Sun, Zhanli & Bavorova, Miroslava & Yekimovskaja, Olga A., 2021. "Revealing the intentions of farmers to recultivate abandoned farmland: A case study of the Buryat Republic in Russia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Jianqiang Li & Qing Feng & Ziyi Ye & Hongming Liu & Yandong Guo & Kun Zhou, 2025. "Farm Household Pluriactivity, Factor Inputs, and Crop Structure Adjustment: Evidence from Sichuan Province, China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, June.
    16. Jian Zhang & Awais Jabbar & Xin Li, 2024. "How Does China’s Agricultural Subsidy Policy Drive More Commercially Productive Small Farmers? The Role of Farmland Scale, Labor Supply, and Cropping Structural Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-15, November.
    17. Sepide Mehrabi & Cynthia Giagnocavo, 2024. "Business models and strategies for the internalization of externalities in agri-food value chains," Agricultural and Food Economics, Springer;Italian Society of Agricultural Economics (SIDEA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-36, December.
    18. Thibault Lemaire & Paul Vertier, 2023. "International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03944888, HAL.
    19. Qianru Chen, 2022. "Analyzing Farmers’ Cultivated-Land-Abandonment Behavior: Integrating the Theory of Planned Behavior and a Structural Equation Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-17, October.
    20. Subejo & Fidiashtry Al & Aryudiawan Candra & Suadi & Awaluddin L & Marfai Muh Aris, 2017. "Food insecurity as a basis for drafting a Strategic Food Sovereignty Plan: A case study of the Kutai Kartanegara District, Indonesia," Quaestiones Geographicae, Sciendo, vol. 36(4), pages 141-158, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:14:y:2025:i:6:p:1311-:d:1682928. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.