IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v150y2025ics0264837725000109.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Drivers of reforestation across land-use sectors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Duden, A.S.
  • Verweij, P.A.
  • Martensen, A.C.
  • Verburg, R.W.

Abstract

Upscaling reforestation efforts is essential to meet ambitious global reforestation targets, requiring a clear understanding of the drivers and facilitating factors of forest gain, which may vary across land-use sectors. We analyse drivers of forest area change across various land-use sectors in the Atlantic Forest of São Paulo state, Brazil, to identify the Forest Transition pathway that best explains reforestation patterns. Using multiple regression, we found that reforestation is preferentially more likely to occur on mixed farming land and less likely on land used for cash crop production. Between 1990 and 2020, gross forest area change was about 10 times greater than net forest area change. Considerable overlap exists between the drivers and facilitating factors of both reforestation and deforestation, suggesting a mix of more dynamic (with higher forest area gains and losses) and more stable landscapes in São Paulo’s Atlantic Forest. However, many drivers and facilitating factors are uniquely tied to reforestation in specific land-use types. Reforestation does not fit neatly into a single Forest Transition pathway, but we can identify different pathways by considering the land-use type that was replaced. Reforestation on mixed farming land, which accounts for 77 % of reforestation events, shows a strong connection to the Forest Policy pathway. If different land uses follow distinct Forest Transition pathways, a one-size-fits-all approach may be ineffective for scaling up reforestation. Our findings indicate that ( various pathways provide opportunities to target specific land-use sectors for reforestation scaling. Recognising the differences in reforestation drivers across sectors is a key step towards aligning policy incentives with these drivers effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Duden, A.S. & Verweij, P.A. & Martensen, A.C. & Verburg, R.W., 2025. "Drivers of reforestation across land-use sectors in the state of São Paulo, Brazil," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s0264837725000109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837725000109
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107477?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashraf, Jawaid & Pandey, Rajiv & de Jong, Wil, 2017. "Assessment of bio-physical, social and economic drivers for forest transition in Asia-Pacific region," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 35-44.
    2. Hissa, Leticia de Barros Viana & Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra & Camargo, Rafael Rodrigues & Lima, Leticia Santos de & Gollnow, Florian & Lakes, Tobia, 2019. "Regrowing forests contribution to law compliance and carbon storage in private properties of the Brazilian Amazon," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Renato A. F. Lima & Alexandre A. Oliveira & Gregory R. Pitta & André L. Gasper & Alexander C. Vibrans & Jérôme Chave & Hans Steege & Paulo I. Prado, 2020. "The erosion of biodiversity and biomass in the Atlantic Forest biodiversity hotspot," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Norman Myers & Russell A. Mittermeier & Cristina G. Mittermeier & Gustavo A. B. da Fonseca & Jennifer Kent, 2000. "Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities," Nature, Nature, vol. 403(6772), pages 853-858, February.
    5. José Maria Cardoso da Silva & Marcelo Tabarelli, 2000. "Tree species impoverishment and the future flora of the Atlantic forest of northeast Brazil," Nature, Nature, vol. 404(6773), pages 72-74, March.
    6. Powlen, Kathryn A. & Jones, Kelly W., 2019. "Identifying the determinants of and barriers to landowner participation in reforestation in Costa Rica," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 216-225.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pütz, S. & Groeneveld, J. & Alves, L.F. & Metzger, J.P. & Huth, A., 2011. "Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(12), pages 1986-1997.
    2. Trevisan, A.C.D. & Schmitt-Filho, A.L. & Farley, J. & Fantini, A.C. & Longo, C., 2016. "Farmer perceptions, policy and reforestation in Santa Catarina, Brazil," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 53-63.
    3. Brannstrom, Christian, 2001. "Conservation-with-Development Models in Brazil's Agro-Pastoral Landscapes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1345-1359, August.
    4. Laxmi D. Bhatta & Sunita Chaudhary & Anju Pandit & Himlal Baral & Partha J. Das & Nigel E. Stork, 2016. "Ecosystem Service Changes and Livelihood Impacts in the Maguri-Motapung Wetlands of Assam, India," Land, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-14, June.
    5. Caviedes, Julián & Ibarra, José Tomás & Calvet-Mir, Laura & Álvarez-Fernández, Santiago & Junqueira, André Braga, 2024. "Indigenous and local knowledge on social-ecological changes is positively associated with livelihood resilience in a Globally Important Agricultural Heritage System," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    6. Maeda, Eduardo Eiji & Clark, Barnaby J.F. & Pellikka, Petri & Siljander, Mika, 2010. "Modelling agricultural expansion in Kenya's Eastern Arc Mountains biodiversity hotspot," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(9), pages 609-620, November.
    7. Aibo Jin & Gachen Zhang & Ping Ma & Xiangrong Wang, 2024. "Ecosystem Services Trade-Offs in the Chaohu Lake Basin Based on Land-Use Scenario Simulations," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Wang, Lijing & Zhang, Lu & Xiao, Yi & Kong, Lingqiao & Ouyang, Zhiyun, 2025. "Identifying suitable areas for cropland and urban development in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Chomitz, Kenneth M. & Thomas, Timothy S. & Brandão, Antônio Salazar P., 2005. "The economic and environmental impact of trade in forest reserve obligations: a simulation analysis of options for dealing with habitat heterogeneity," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 43(4), January.
    10. Gulay Cetinkaya Ciftcioglu, 2025. "Tackling the resilience of the olive landscape through nature-based solutions: a case study from the Akdeniz protected area of Northern Cyprus," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 1-19, June.
    11. de Jong, Johan & Poorter, Lourens & de Jong, Wil & Bongers, Frans & Lohbeck, Madelon & Veenendaal, Elmar & Meave, Jorge A. & Jakovac, Catarina C. & Brancalion, Pedro H.S. & Amissah, Lucy & Martínez-Ra, 2025. "Dissecting forest transition: Contribution of mature forests, second-growth forests and tree plantations to tree cover dynamics in the tropics," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Elisa Barbour & Lara Kueppers, 2012. "Conservation and management of ecological systems in a changing California," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 111(1), pages 135-163, March.
    13. van der Hoff, Richard & Nascimento, Nathália & Fabrício-Neto, Ailton & Jaramillo-Giraldo, Carolina & Ambrosio, Geanderson & Arieira, Julia & Afonso Nobre, Carlos & Rajão, Raoni, 2022. "Policy-oriented ecosystem services research on tropical forests in South America: A systematic literature review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    14. Brendan Fisher & Stephen Polasky & Thomas Sterner, 2011. "Conservation and Human Welfare: Economic Analysis of Ecosystem Services," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 151-159, February.
    15. Stephanie D. Maier & Jan Paul Lindner & Javier Francisco, 2019. "Conceptual Framework for Biodiversity Assessments in Global Value Chains," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-34, March.
    16. Sehgal, Shaina & Babu, Suresh, 2021. "Economic Transformation of the Nicobar Islands Post-tsunami: A Material Import–Export Analysis," Ecology, Economy and Society - the INSEE Journal, Indian Society of Ecological Economics (INSEE), vol. 4(02), July.
    17. Poonam Tripathi & Mukund Dev Behera & Partha Sarathi Roy, 2017. "Optimized grid representation of plant species richness in India—Utility of an existing national database in integrated ecological analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(3), pages 1-13, March.
    18. Davis, Katrina & Pannell, David J. & Kragt, Marit & Gelcich, Stefan & Schilizzi, Steven, 2014. "Accounting for enforcement is essential to improve the spatial allocation of marine restricted-use zoning systems," Working Papers 195718, University of Western Australia, School of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    19. Juliana Silveira dos Santos & Fausto Miziara & Hayla da Silva Fernandes & Renato Cezar Miranda & Rosane Garcia Collevatti, 2021. "Technification in Dairy Farms May Reconcile Habitat Conservation in a Brazilian Savanna Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-15, May.
    20. repec:plo:pone00:0132126 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Ariane Amin & Johanna Choumert, 2015. "Development and biodiversity conservation in Sub-Saharan Africa: A spatial analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 729-744.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s0264837725000109. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.