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Too big to fail? An analysis of the Colombian banking system through compositional data

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  • Vega Baquero, Juan David
  • Santolino, Miguel

Abstract

Although still incipient in economics and finance, compositional data analysis (in which relative information is more important than absolute values are) has become more relevant in statistical analysis in recent years. This article constructs a concentration index for financial/banking systems via compositional analysis to establish the potential existence of “too big to fail” financial entities. The intention is to provide an early warning tool for regulators about this type of institution, so they can define thresholds and measures depending on their risk appetite and the systems’ specificities. The index has been applied to the Colombian banking system and assessed over time with a forecast to determine whether the system is becoming more concentrated. Results found that the concentration index has been decreasing in recent years and the model predicts this trend will continue. Regarding the methodology used, compositional models were shown to be more stable and to lead to better prediction of the index compared to the classical multivariate methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Vega Baquero, Juan David & Santolino, Miguel, 2022. "Too big to fail? An analysis of the Colombian banking system through compositional data," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(2).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lajcba:v:3:y:2022:i:2:s2666143822000151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.latcb.2022.100060
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    Cited by:

    1. Salvador Linares-Mustar'os & Maria `Angels Farreras-Noguer & N'uria Arimany-Serrat & Germ`a Coenders, 2022. "New financial ratios based on the compositional data methodology," Papers 2210.11138, arXiv.org.
    2. Germ`a Coenders & N'uria Arimany Serrat, 2023. "Accounting statement analysis at industry level. A gentle introduction to the compositional approach," Papers 2305.16842, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Simplex; Aitchison geometry; Systemically important banks; Vector autoregresion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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