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A model to assess the financial vulnerability of Italian firms

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  • De Socio, Antonio
  • Michelangeli, Valentina

Abstract

We develop a model to assess the financial vulnerability of the Italian corporate sector over a two-year horizon under baseline and stressed scenarios. To take into account the heterogeneity of firms and their demography we use micro data, which are then integrated with macroeconomic forecasts. We find that an accommodative monetary policy combined with economic recovery and pro-growth reforms widely reduce the vulnerability of the corporate sector. However, micro firms and those operating in the construction sector remain the most vulnerable, suggesting that targeted policies would be beneficial.

Suggested Citation

  • De Socio, Antonio & Michelangeli, Valentina, 2017. "A model to assess the financial vulnerability of Italian firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 147-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:39:y:2017:i:1:p:147-168
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.03.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2015. "The euro crisis: Where to from here?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 428-444.
    2. Andonio De Socio & Valentina Michelangeli, 2015. "Modelling Italian firms� financial vulnerability," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013. "Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
    4. Hovick Shahnazarian, 2011. "A dynamic micro-econometric simulation model for firms," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(1), pages 2-20.
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    Cited by:

    1. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    2. Francisco Augusto & Márcio Mateus, 2021. "Portuguese firms’ financial vulnerability and excess debt in the context of the COVID-19 shock," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Rémi Stellian & Gabriel I. Penagos & Jenny P. Danna-Buitrago, 2021. "Firms in financial distress: evidence from inter-firm payment networks with volatility driven by ‘animal spirits’," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 16(1), pages 59-101, January.
    4. Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    5. Stefania De Mitri & Antonio De Socio & Valentina Nigro & Sabrina Pastorelli, 2021. "Financial support measures and credit to firms during the pandemic," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 665, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Rémi Stellian & Jenny P. Danna‐Buitrago, 2020. "Financial distress, free cash flow, and interfirm payment network: Evidence from an agent‐based model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 598-616, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Firms’ vulnerability; Debt; Stress test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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