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Defending against speculative attacks: The policy maker's reputation

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  • Huang, Chong

Abstract

This paper studies how speculative attacks and regime change arise from the interaction between a policy maker's reputation for defending against speculative attacks and speculators' learning of the policy maker's type. If speculators receive conditionally independent and identically distributed private signals about the policy maker's type in every period, then no matter how precise their per-period private signals are, there can be no equilibrium with attacks. If the speculators receive private signals whose precision increases as a power function of the time with the power strictly greater than two, there exist infinitely many equilibria with attacks, but this equilibrium multiplicity arises from the timing of the attacks only. In such a case, the set of status quos surviving in any equilibrium is strictly larger than in the case of a short-lived policy maker.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Chong, 2017. "Defending against speculative attacks: The policy maker's reputation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 1-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:171:y:2017:i:c:p:1-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2017.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. George-Marios Angeletos & Christian Hellwig & Alessandro Pavan, 2006. "Signaling in a Global Game: Coordination and Policy Traps," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 452-484, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Speculative attacks; Reputation; Coordination; Learning;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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