Don't let your robots grow up to be traders: Artificial intelligence, human intelligence, and asset-market bubbles
Researchers who have examined markets populated by "robot traders" have claimed that the high level of allocative efficiency observed in experimental markets is driven largely by the "intelligence" implicit in the rules of the market. Furthermore, they view the ability of agents (artificial or human) to process information and make rational decisions as unnecessary for the efficient operation of markets. This paper presents a new series of market experiments that show that markets populated with standard robot traders are no longer efficient if time is a meaningful element, as it is in all asset markets. While simple two- season markets with human subjects reliably converge to an efficient equilibrium, markets with minimally intelligent robot traders fail to attain this equilibrium. Instead, these markets overshoot the equilibrium and then crash below it. In addition to firmly establishing the role of trader intelligence in asset-market equilibrium, these experiments also provide insights into why bubbles and crashes are consistently observed in many asset-market laboratory experiments using human subjects.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Antoni Bosch-Domenech & Shyam Sunder, 2000.
"Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium,"
Society for Computational Economics, vol. 16(3), pages 257-284, December.
- Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Shyam Sunder, 1996. "Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 91, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Bosch, A. & Sunder, S., 1994. "Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium," GSIA Working Papers 1994-11, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Shyam NMI Sunder & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2001. "Tracking the Invisible Hand: Convergence of Double Auctions to Competitive Equilibrium," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm204, Yale School of Management.
- Daniel Friedman, 1982.
"Price Formation in Double Auction Markets,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
278, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Miller, Ross M & Plott, Charles R, 1985.
"Product Quality Signaling in Experimental Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 53(4), pages 837-72, July.
- Carl Chiarella & Giulia Iori, 2002. "A simulation analysis of the microstructure of double auction markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(5), pages 346-353.
- Mirowski,Philip, 2002. "Machine Dreams," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521772839, November.
- Caginalp, Gunduz & Porter, David & Smith, Vernon, 2000. "Momentum and overreaction in experimental asset markets," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 187-204, January.
- Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October.
- Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September.
- Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001.
"Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
- Lei, V. & Noussair, C. & Plott, C.R., 1998. "Non-Speculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality Vs. Actual Irrationality," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1120, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
- LeBaron, Blake & Yamamoto, Ryuichi, 2007. "Long-memory in an order-driven market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 85-89.
- Van Boening, Mark V & Wilcox, Nathaniel T, 1996. "Avoidable Cost: Ride a Double Auction Roller Coaster," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 461-77, June.
- Ross M. Miller & Charles R. Plott & Vernon L. Smith, 1977.
"Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 91(4), pages 599-624.
- Miller, R. M. & Plott, Charles R. & Smith, Vernon L., . "Intertemporal Competitive Equilibrium: An Empirical Study of Speculation," Working Papers 87, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
- Mirowski,Philip, 2002. "Machine Dreams," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521775267, November.
- Ross M. Miller, 2002. "Can Markets Learn to Avoid Bubbles?," Experimental 0201001, EconWPA, revised 07 Jan 2002.
- Williams, Arlington W, 1980. "Computerized Double-Auction Markets: Some Initial Experimental Results," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(3), pages 235-58, July.
- Vernon L. Smith, 1962.
"An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 111.
- Vernon L. Smith, 1962. "An Experimental Study of Competitive Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70, pages 322.
- John Duffy, 2004.
"Agent-Based Models and Human Subject Experiments,"
- Gode, Dhananjay K & Sunder, Shyam, 1993. "Allocative Efficiency of Markets with Zero-Intelligence Traders: Market as a Partial Substitute for Individual Rationality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 119-37, February.
- Steven Gjerstad & Jason Shachat, 2003. "The Edgeworth exchange formulation of bargaining models and market experiments," Microeconomics 0304004, EconWPA.
- Shyam Sunder & MODELS A, 2002. "Markets as Artifacts: Aggregate Efficiency from Zero-Intelligence Traders," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm284, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Sep 2004.
- John Duffy & M. Ünver, 2006. "Asset price bubbles and crashes with near-zero-intelligence traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(3), pages 537-563, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:68:y:2008:i:1:p:153-166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.