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Does carnival contribute to crime? Examining the spatiotemporal effects of Mardi Gras on New Orleans Crime Trends (2012–2024)

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  • Petersen, Nick
  • Rafail, Patrick
  • Chen, Xiaojin

Abstract

While criminologists have long been interested in how crime varies across space and time, only recently have studies examined how these dynamics intersect to shape crime patterns surrounding mega public events and venues, such as sporting events or concerts. Although this research has generated critical insights into crime patterns surrounding somewhat temporally and geographically discrete public events, we know less about how long-lasting and more spatially distributed public events that draw in droves of tourists to a city, such as Carnival in New Orleans, influence crime. Drawing on routine activities and crime-pattern theories, we use Carnival in New Orleans as a case study for larger issues of crime, tourism, and public events. Employing negative binomial regressions to analyze publicly available data, we assess the temporal (parade days) and spatial (distance to parade routes) effects of Carnival season on daily neighborhood crime patterns from 2012 to 2024 (N = 1,364,330). Compared to non-parade days or parade days earlier in the Carnival season, estimates reveal significant increases in crime rates during Mardi Gras weekend when tourists most often visit New Orleans, particularly in neighborhoods closest to parade routes. Conversely, crime is displaced in New Orleans during Mardi Gras weekend, with neighborhoods farther from parade routes experiencing significant declines in crime. These findings have important theoretical and policy implications for our understanding of crime and mega public events/venues, highlighting the role of tourism in shaping spatiotemporal crime trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Petersen, Nick & Rafail, Patrick & Chen, Xiaojin, 2026. "Does carnival contribute to crime? Examining the spatiotemporal effects of Mardi Gras on New Orleans Crime Trends (2012–2024)," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:102:y:2026:i:c:s0047235225002296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2025.102580
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