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Reading between the ratings: Modeling residual credit risk and yield overlap

Author

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  • Chang, Charles
  • Fuh, Cheng-Der
  • Kao, Chu-Lan Michael

Abstract

Credit ratings group firms by risk, yet yields are shown to overlap between firms of adjacent ratings. We model this by considering the residual risk arising from differences in the parameters of each firm's value process for firms with the same rating. To do so, our framework simultaneously incorporates jump default with Markov-governed likelihoods and continuous defaults in a default-barrier framework. We provide closed-form approximations for expected default time and tail probabilities, and empirically fit the S-shaped yield curve, intra-rating spread, and inter-rating overlap. Results are robust to time period, rating system, sub-rating, and common characteristics such as liquidity.

Suggested Citation

  • Chang, Charles & Fuh, Cheng-Der & Kao, Chu-Lan Michael, 2017. "Reading between the ratings: Modeling residual credit risk and yield overlap," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 114-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:114-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.04.011
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit rating; Yield curve; Markov model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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