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Predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts

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  • Henderson, Brian J.
  • Marks, Joseph M.

Abstract

We propose a simple method to infer the forecast error associated with quarterly estimates of earnings and revenue before the firm announces realized earnings and revenue. The method uses estimates of the profit margin implied by an analyst’s forecasts of both earnings and revenue to identify forecasts that are likely to be optimistic or pessimistic. The ability to anticipate forecast error permits a trading strategy that exploits the average market reaction following positive and negative earnings and revenue surprises.

Suggested Citation

  • Henderson, Brian J. & Marks, Joseph M., 2013. "Predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4265-4277.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:11:p:4265-4277
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Robert & Kim, Sangwan, 2021. "Does revenue-expense matching play a differential role in analysts’ earnings and revenue forecasts?," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(5).
    2. David Newton, 2019. "Are All Forecasts Made Equal? Conditioning Models on Fit to Improve Accuracy," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(03), pages 1-32, September.
    3. Cereola, Sandra J. & Nichols, Nancy B. & Street, Donna L., 2018. "The predictive ability of entity-wide geographic sales disclosures: IAS 14R versus IFRS 8," Research in Accounting Regulation, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 121-130.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Analyst forecast; Earnings announcement; Revenue announcement; Profit margin;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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