False discoveries in volatility timing of mutual funds
This paper examines the volatility timing of US mutual funds by controlling the false discovery rate to find out how many funds are truly countercyclical (procyclical) timing funds. Empirical results show that, given the whole universe of our sample funds, the percentages of countercyclical and procyclical volatility timing funds are about equal. We also find that while the standard approach, which simply counts the number of significant positive (negative) timing coefficients, does not incorporate false discoveries in volatility timing, it provides quite accurate volatility timing results. Finally, we find that the performance measures for an equally weighted portfolio of procyclical timing funds are greater than for an equally weighted portfolio of countercyclical timing funds in the in-sample test, consistent with our expectation that procyclical timers earn higher returns because they take on more risk. However, the countercyclical timing portfolio outperforms the procyclical timing portfolio in the out-of-sample test.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurent Barras & Olivier Scaillet & Russ Wermers, 2010.
"False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 179-216, 02.
- Olivier Scaillet & Laurent Barras & Russell R. Wermers, 2005. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Working Papers CEB 05-014.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Laurent BARRAS & Olivier SCAILLET & Russ WERMERS, 2005. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," FAME Research Paper Series rp163, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Laurent BARRAS & Olivier SCAILLET & Russ WERMERS, 2005. "False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 08-18, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Sep 2008.
- Barras, Laurent & Scaillet, Olivier & Wermers, Russ, 2009. "False discoveries in mutual fund performance: Measuring luck in estimated alphas," CFR Working Papers 06-02, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Fleming, Jeff & Kirby, Chris & Ostdiek, Barbara, 2003. "The economic value of volatility timing using "realized" volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 473-509, March.
- Russ Wermers, 1999. "Mutual Fund Herding and the Impact on Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 581-622, 04.
- Busse, Jeffrey A, 1999. "Volatility Timing in Mutual Funds: Evidence from Daily Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 1009-41.
- Michael C. Jensen, 1968. "The Performance Of Mutual Funds In The Period 1945–1964," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(2), pages 389-416, 05.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- José Renato Haas Ornelas & Antônio Francisco Silva Júnior & José Luiz Barros Fernandes, 2012. "Yes, the choice of performance measure does matter for ranking of us mutual funds," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-72, 01.
- Giambona, Erasmo & Golec, Joseph, 2009. "Mutual fund volatility timing and management fees," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 589-599, April.
- Jeff Fleming, 2001. "The Economic Value of Volatility Timing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 329-352, 02.
- Eling, Martin & Schuhmacher, Frank, 2007. "Does the choice of performance measure influence the evaluation of hedge funds?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2632-2647, September.
- McCracken, Michael W & Sapp, Stephen G, 2005. "Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 473-94, June.
- Goetzmann, William N. & Ingersoll, Jonathan & Ivković, Zoran, 2000.
"Monthly Measurement of Daily Timers,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 257-290, September.
- Jiang, Wei, 2003. "A nonparametric test of market timing," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 399-425, September.
- Dimitris Politis & Halbert White, 2004. "Automatic Block-Length Selection for the Dependent Bootstrap," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 53-70.
- Kosowski, Robert & Timmermann, Allan & Wermers, Russ & White, Hal, 2005.
"Can mutual fund stars really pick stocks? New evidence from a bootstrap analysis,"
CFR Working Papers
05-14, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Robert Kosowski & Allan Timmermann & Russ Wermers & Hal White, 2006. "Can Mutual Fund "Stars" Really Pick Stocks? New Evidence from a Bootstrap Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(6), pages 2551-2595, December.
- Chen, Yong & Liang, Bing, 2007. "Do Market Timing Hedge Funds Time the Market?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 827-856, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:7:p:2083-2094. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.