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Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!


  • McCracken, Michael W
  • Sapp, Stephen G


Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods agreement, researchers have used a wide variety of structural models to try to predict exchange rate movements. Unfortunately, finding consistent evidence that these models outperform a random walk has proven elusive. In this paper, we investigate the impact different methods of inference may have had on these conclusions. Using p-values based on recently developed tests of forecast accuracy and encompassing, as well as q-values designed to mitigate multiple testing problems, we provide stronger evidence consistent with these models having superior predictive ability. Our results suggest that previous studies' inability to detect predictive ability may have been influenced by the statistics used and the manner in which they were employed.

Suggested Citation

  • McCracken, Michael W & Sapp, Stephen G, 2005. "Evaluating the Predictability of Exchange Rates Using Long-Horizon Regressions: Mind Your p's and q's!," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 473-494, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:37:y:2005:i:3:p:473-94

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
    2. Darvas, Zsolt & Schepp, Zoltán, 2007. "Kelet-közép-európai devizaárfolyamok előrejelzése határidős árfolyamok segítségével
      [Forecasting the exchange rates of three Central-Eastern European currencies with forward exchange rates]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 501-528.
    3. Swanson, Norman R. & Urbach, Richard, 2015. "Prediction and simulation using simple models characterized by nonstationarity and seasonality," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 312-323.
    4. Michael Bleaney, "undated". "Fundamentals And Exchange Rate Volatility," Discussion Papers 06/03, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    5. Ron Alquist & Menzie D. Chinn, 2008. "Conventional and unconventional approaches to exchange rate modelling and assessment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(1), pages 2-13.
    6. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    7. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
    10. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
    11. Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, "undated". "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
    12. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2006. "Can fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio help to predict exchange rates?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1251-1263.
    13. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 67-109, February.
    14. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2012. "False discoveries in volatility timing of mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2083-2094.
    15. Bredin, Don & Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & Thomas, Dylan C., 2014. "Performance and performance persistence of UK closed-end equity funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 189-199.
    16. Jack Fosten, 2016. "Model selection with factors and variables," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2016-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    17. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk, 2013. "Performance, stock selection and market timing of the German equity mutual fund industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 86-101.
    18. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
    19. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Conditional Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictive Ability in Long Run Regressions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 378, Central Bank of Chile.

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