IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v35y2011i2p471-477.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetrical return on equity mean reversion and catering

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, An-Sing
  • Lin, Shih-Chieh

Abstract

Using a momentum threshold autoregression model, we find evidence showing that there is an asymmetrical mean reversion behavior in return on equity (ROE). Results show that the speed of adjustment of ROE towards the long-term mean is slower in the ROE increasing regimes than in the ROE decreasing regimes. Additional results indicate that investor earnings optimism is significantly related to change in abnormal ROE. These results are consistent with predictions from catering theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, An-Sing & Lin, Shih-Chieh, 2011. "Asymmetrical return on equity mean reversion and catering," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 471-477, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:471-477
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00341-9
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008. "A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. "Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. Paul E. Fischer & Phillip C. Stocken, 2004. "Effect of Investor Speculation on Earnings Management," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 843-870, December.
    4. Chen, An-Sing & Cheng, Lee-Young & Cheng, Kuang-Fu, 2009. "Intrinsic bubbles and Granger causality in the S&P 500: Evidence from long-term data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2275-2281, December.
    5. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-176, April.
    6. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2007. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 651-707.
    7. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    8. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Perez, Maria-Teresa, 2003. "Numerical issues in threshold autoregressive modeling of time series," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2219-2242, September.
    9. Chi, Jianxin (Daniel) & Gupta, Manu, 2009. "Overvaluation and earnings management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1652-1663, September.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    11. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    12. Yu, Qiao & Du, Bin & Sun, Qian, 2006. "Earnings management at rights issues thresholds--Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 3453-3468, December.
    13. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    14. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004. "A Catering Theory of Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1125-1165, June.
    16. Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Market Volatility and Investor Behavior," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 58-62, May.
    17. Chen, An-Sing & Cheng, Lee-Young & Cheng, Kuang-Fu & Chih, Shu-Wei, 2010. "Earnings management, market discounts and the performance of private equity placements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1922-1932, August.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
    19. Isabelle Huault & V. Perret & S. Charreire-Petit, 2007. "Management," Post-Print halshs-00337676, HAL.
    20. Ferris, Stephen P. & Jayaraman, Narayanan & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2009. "Catering effects in corporate dividend policy: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1730-1738, September.
    21. Enders, Walter & Granger, Clive W J, 1998. "Unit-Root Tests and Asymmetric Adjustment with an Example Using the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 304-311, July.
    22. Christopher Polk & Paola Sapienza, 2009. "The Stock Market and Corporate Investment: A Test of Catering Theory," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 187-217, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. I-Cheng Yeh & Yi-Cheng Liu, 2023. "Exploring the growth value equity valuation model with data visualization," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-37, December.
    2. I-Cheng Yeh & Che-hui Lien, 2017. "Growth and value hybrid valuation model based on mean reversion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(50), pages 5092-5116, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lawrenz, Jochen & Zorn, Josef, 2017. "Predicting international stock returns with conditional price-to-fundamental ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 159-184.
    2. Pierre Giot & Mikael Petitjean, 2009. "Short-term market timing using the bond-equity yield ratio," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 365-384.
    3. Yu, Jialin, 2011. "Disagreement and return predictability of stock portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 162-183, January.
    4. Jurdi, Doureige & Kim, Jae, 2019. "Predicting the U.S. Stock Market Return: Evidence from the Improved Augmented Regression Method," MPRA Paper 94028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Guidolin, Massimo & McMillan, David G. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Time varying stock return predictability: Evidence from US sectors," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 34-40.
    6. Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
    7. Coakley, Jerry & Fuertes, Ana-Maria, 2006. "Valuation ratios and price deviations from fundamentals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2325-2346, August.
    8. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    9. Zhang, Han & Guo, Bin & Liu, Lanbiao, 2022. "The time-varying bond risk premia in China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 51-76.
    10. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
    11. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
    12. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li, 2023. "Stock return predictability and cyclical movements in valuation ratios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-53.
    13. Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2020. "Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price–Dividend Ratio," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 130-158, January.
    14. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
    15. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    16. Cem Cakmakli & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-115/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    17. Yu, Deshui & Huang, Difang & Chen, Li & Li, Luyang, 2023. "Forecasting dividend growth: The role of adjusted earnings yield," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    18. Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2011. "Expected inflation, expected stock returns, and money illusion: What can we learn from survey expectations?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(5), pages 702-719, June.
    19. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    20. Ian Martin, 2017. "What is the Expected Return on the Market?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 367-433.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:471-477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.