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Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility

Author

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  • Kim, Young Shin
  • Rachev, Svetlozar T.
  • Bianchi, Michele Leonardo
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.

Abstract

Asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution, numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution. Alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s, with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions (with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution). Since the turn of the century, specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions. More specifically, subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed. In this paper, we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the "KR distribution". We empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution: the Carr-Geman-Madan-Yor (CGMY) distribution and the modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution. The advantage of the KR distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters. For these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution, which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero, we generate the exponential Lévy market models induced from them. We then construct a new GARCH model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that GARCH model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns: volatility clustering, fat tails, and skewness. We formulate the algorithm to find the risk-neutral return processes for those GARCH models using the "change of measure" for the tempered stable distributions. To compare the performance of those exponential Lévy models and the GARCH models, we report the results of the parameters estimated for the S&P 500 index and investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for those GARCH models for the S&P 500 option prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Young Shin & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2008. "Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1363-1378, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:7:p:1363-1378
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gerber, Hans U. & Shiu, Elias S. W., 1996. "Actuarial bridges to dynamic hedging and option pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 183-218, November.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    3. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
    4. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "New Methods in Statistical Economics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 421-421.
    5. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Schinckus & Çınla Akdere, 2015. "Towards a New Way of Teaching Statistics in Economics: The Case for Econophysics," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 89-108, September.
    2. Fernández-Martínez, M. & Sánchez-Granero, M.A. & Trinidad Segovia, J.E., 2013. "Measuring the self-similarity exponent in Lévy stable processes of financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5330-5345.
    3. Shin Kim, Young & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Leonardo Bianchi, Michele & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010. "Tempered stable and tempered infinitely divisible GARCH models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2096-2109, September.
    4. Broda, Simon A. & Haas, Markus & Krause, Jochen & Paolella, Marc S. & Steude, Sven C., 2013. "Stable mixture GARCH models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(2), pages 292-306.
    5. Stoyan Stoyanov & Borjana Racheva-Iotova & Svetlozar Rachev & Frank Fabozzi, 2010. "Stochastic models for risk estimation in volatile markets: a survey," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 176(1), pages 293-309, April.
    6. Stoyanov, Stoyan V. & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2013. "CVaR sensitivity with respect to tail thickness," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 977-988.
    7. Bedendo, Mascia & Campolongo, Francesca & Joossens, Elisabeth & Saita, Francesco, 2010. "Pricing multiasset equity options: How relevant is the dependence function?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801, April.
    8. repec:spr:annopr:v:253:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2309-y is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Young Kim & Svetlozar Rachev & Michele Bianchi & Frank Fabozzi, 2009. "Computing VAR and AVaR in Infinitely Divisible Distributions," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2569, Yale School of Management.
    10. Fabozzi Frank J. & Stoyanov Stoyan V. & Rachev Svetlozar T., 2013. "Computational aspects of portfolio risk estimation in volatile markets: a survey," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 103-120, February.
    11. Kim, Young Shin & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Mitov, Ivan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1879-1891, August.
    12. Gong, Xiaoli & Zhuang, Xintian, 2017. "American option valuation under time changed tempered stable Lévy processes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 57-68.
    13. Möller, Christoph & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Balancing energy strategies in electricity portfolio management," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 2-11, January.
    14. Kim, Young Shin & Lee, Jaesung & Mittnik, Stefan & Park, Jiho, 2015. "Quanto option pricing in the presence of fat tails and asymmetric dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 512-520.
    15. Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Kim, Young Shin & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Tempered infinitely divisible distributions and processes," Working Paper Series in Economics 26, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
    16. Edit Rroji & Lorenzo Mercuri, 2015. "Mixed tempered stable distribution," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1559-1569, September.
    17. Asmerilda Hitaj & Friedrich Hubalek & Lorenzo Mercuri & Edit Rroji, 2016. "Multivariate Mixed Tempered Stable Distribution," Papers 1609.00926, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2016.
    18. Fajardo, José & Farias, Aquiles, 2010. "Derivative pricing using multivariate affine generalized hyperbolic distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1607-1617, July.
    19. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S., 2014. "Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-141.
    20. Gong, Xiaoli & Zhuang, Xintian, 2017. "Measuring financial risk and portfolio reversion with time changed tempered stable Lévy processes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 148-159.
    21. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:628-637 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
    23. Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
    24. Shi, Yanlin & Feng, Lingbing, 2016. "A discussion on the innovation distribution of the Markov regime-switching GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 278-288.

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