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Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025

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  • Linz, Marco

Abstract

A Delphi panel of aviation experts is used to anticipate probable and wildcard scenarios on the future of aviation in 2025. According to the experts’ estimations, the passenger, business aviation, and air cargo segments will be faced with 27 probable high-impact developments. These include long-haul growth primarily linked to emerging countries, a number of substitution threats, liberalization and deregulation, increasing industry vulnerability, finiteness of fossil fuels, and emissions trading. The emergence of low-cost cargo carriers and air cargo substitution by sea transportation were identified as potential surprises. Several wildcard scenarios were identified such as natural catastrophes, era of virtual communication, and home-producing “fabbing†society.

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  • Linz, Marco, 2012. "Scenarios for the aviation industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 28-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:22:y:2012:i:c:p:28-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2012.01.006
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    6. Das, Deepjyoti & Sharma, Somesh Kumar & Parti, Raman & Singh, Jagroop, 2016. "Analyzing the effect of aviation infrastructure over aviation fuel consumption reduction," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-100.
    7. Tobias Mueller & Steven Gronau, 2023. "Fostering Macroeconomic Research on Hydrogen-Powered Aviation: A Systematic Literature Review on General Equilibrium Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-33, February.
    8. Kluge, Ulrike & Ringbeck, Jürgen & Spinler, Stefan, 2020. "Door-to-door travel in 2035 – A Delphi study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    9. Michelmann, Johannes & Schmalz, Ulrike & Becker, Axel & Stroh, Florian & Behnke, Sebastian & Hornung, Mirko, 2023. "Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    10. Bauer, Linus Benjamin & Bloch, Daniel & Merkert, Rico, 2020. "Ultra Long-Haul: An emerging business model accelerated by COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    11. Enoch, M.P. & Cross, R. & Potter, N. & Davidson, C. & Taylor, S. & Brown, R. & Huang, H. & Parsons, J. & Tucker, S. & Wynne, E. & Grieg, D. & Campbell, G. & Jackson, A. & Potter, S., 2020. "Future local passenger transport system scenarios and implications for policy and practice," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 52-67.

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