Evolution of China’s intercontinental air network affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical disruptions

This study investigates the heterogeneous responses of Chinese and foreign airlines to the compound disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions, focusing on the restructuring of China’s international direct air transport network. Utilizing airline-route-level data from 2019 to 2024, the research employs a probit model to analyse route service decisions in the China–North America and China–Europe markets. The empirical findings reveal divergent recovery patterns shaped by distinct underlying drivers. In the China–Europe market, Chinese airlines, benefiting from sustained access to Russian airspace, assumed a dominant role, whereas foreign airlines faced a slower recovery constrained by costly operational detours. In contrast, the recovery in the China–North America market remained suppressed for all carriers due to persistent geopolitical tensions. Strategically, foreign airlines became more likely to serve more competitive routes and to avoid routes already operated by alliance partners, compared to the pre-disruption period. Conversely, Chinese airlines exhibited a greater likelihood of serving less competitive routes and routes already operated by other alliance members. These findings underscore how asymmetric operational constraints and geopolitical factors reshape aviation networks through carrier-specific strategies, offering critical insights for policymakers and managers.