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Research on safety assessment of air traffic control in small and medium airports based on machine learning

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  • Sun, Fanrong
  • Shen, Di
  • Yang, Dikai
  • Dai, Meize

Abstract

To establish an impartial air safety evaluation system, this study translated qualitative air safety assessment into quantitative probability estimation using machine learning and historical data. A quantitative ATC safety assessment framework was formulated based on the SHEL model, complemented by a cloud model for safety evaluation drawing on fuzzy and uncertainty theories. A copula function analyzed correlations among cloud model indices, refined the model, and the entropy weight method determined membership weights. Ordered logistic regression categorized ATC safety levels, while genetic algorithms extracted factors' attributes and principal component analysis reduced model complexity. Ultimately, a semi-supervised learning-based collaborative ATC safety evaluation system was developed, enhancing the cloud model's generalizability and precision. Cross-validation and multifaceted verification confirmed the system's objectivity and reliability.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Fanrong & Shen, Di & Yang, Dikai & Dai, Meize, 2025. "Research on safety assessment of air traffic control in small and medium airports based on machine learning," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:126:y:2025:i:c:s0969699725000535
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2025.102790
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Di Gravio, Giulio & Mancini, Maurizio & Patriarca, Riccardo & Costantino, Francesco, 2015. "Overall safety performance of the air traffic management system: Indicators and analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 65-69.
    2. Flavio Vismari, Lucio & Camargo Junior, João Batista, 2011. "A safety assessment methodology applied to CNS/ATM-based air traffic control system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(7), pages 727-738.
    3. A. Alonso-Ayuso & L. Escudero & F. Martín-Campo, 2014. "On modeling the air traffic control coordination in the collision avoidance problem by mixed integer linear optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 222(1), pages 89-105, November.
    4. Birr, Stefan & Kley, Tobias & Volgushev, Stanislav, 2019. "Model assessment for time series dynamics using copula spectral densities: A graphical tool," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 122-146.
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