A two-stage approach to aircraft recovery under uncertainty

The paper presents a two-stage approach for minimizing the impact of daily disruptions on an airline’s published flight schedule. The problem is characterized by uncertainty in the duration of the disruption and the point in time when its length becomes known. Both a single-commodity network model and multi-commodity network model with side constraints are developed to first determine the flights that are most likely to be affected, and then to adjust their schedules to achieve system-wide optimality. The overall objective is to minimize the weighted sum of total passenger delay costs, cancellation costs, curfew violation costs, and variation from the original schedule. The two types of uncertainty are addressed by examining a range of scenarios that reflect the most likely outcomes. The results provide guidance and a measure of robustness for the flight director as the disruption unfolds. A rolling horizon approach that closely mimics current procedures used by several airlines is also presented to provide a benchmark for comparisons with the two-stage solutions.