A Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk based on risk-neutral predictive distributions
We present a Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk under the framework of the Lee-Carter methodology. Specifically, we propose a Bayesian method for pricing the survivor bond and the related survivor swap designed by Denuit etÂ al. (2007). Our method is based on the risk neutralization of the predictive distribution of future survival rates using the entropy maximization principle discussed by Stutzer (1996). The method is illustrated by applying it to Japanese mortality rates.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
- Milevsky, Moshe A. & David Promislow, S., 2001. "Mortality derivatives and the option to annuitise," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 299-318, December.
- F. Douglas Foster & Charles H. Whiteman, 2006. "Bayesian Prediction, Entropy, and Option Pricingx," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 31(2), pages 181-205, December.
- Alex Cowley & J. David Cummins, 2005. "Securitization of Life Insurance Assets and Liabilities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 193-226.
- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
- Wolfgang Reichmuth & Samad Sarferaz, 2008. "Bayesian Demographic Modeling and Forecasting: An Application to U.S. Mortality," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-052, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Yijia Lin & Samuel H. Cox, 2005. "Securitization of Mortality Risks in Life Annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 227-252.
- Kevin Dowd & David Blake & Andrew J. G. Cairns & Paul Dawson, 2006. "Survivor Swaps," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(1), pages 1-17.
- Buchen, Peter W. & Kelly, Michael, 1996. "The Maximum Entropy Distribution of an Asset Inferred from Option Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(01), pages 143-159, March.
- Isabelle Bray, 2002. "Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to projecting cancer incidence and mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 51(2), pages 151-164.
- Michel Denuit & Pierre Devolder & Anne-Cécile Goderniaux, 2007. "Securitization of Longevity Risk: Pricing Survivor Bonds With Wang Transform in the Lee-Carter Framework," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 87-113.
- Blake, David & Dowd, Kevin & Cairns, Andrew J.G., 2008. "Longevity risk and the Grim Reaper's toxic tail: The survivor fan charts," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 1062-1066, June.
- Andrew J. G. Cairns & David Blake & Kevin Dowd, 2006. "A Two-Factor Model for Stochastic Mortality with Parameter Uncertainty: Theory and Calibration," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 687-718.
- Stutzer, Michael, 1996. " A Simple Nonparametric Approach to Derivative Security Valuation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1633-52, December.
- Czado, Claudia & Delwarde, Antoine & Denuit, Michel, 2005. "Bayesian Poisson log-bilinear mortality projections," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 260-284, June.
- Kogure Atsuyuki & Kitsukawa Kenji & Kurachi Yoshiyuki, 2009. "A Bayesian Comparison of Models for Changing Mortalities toward Evaluating Longevity Risk in Japan," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-22, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:46:y:2010:i:1:p:162-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.