A Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk based on risk-neutral predictive distributions
We present a Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk under the framework of the Lee-Carter methodology. Specifically, we propose a Bayesian method for pricing the survivor bond and the related survivor swap designed by Denuit etÂ al. (2007). Our method is based on the risk neutralization of the predictive distribution of future survival rates using the entropy maximization principle discussed by Stutzer (1996). The method is illustrated by applying it to Japanese mortality rates.
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- Brouhns, Natacha & Denuit, Michel & Vermunt, Jeroen K., 2002. "A Poisson log-bilinear regression approach to the construction of projected lifetables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 373-393, December.
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- Michel Denuit & Pierre Devolder & Anne-Cécile Goderniaux, 2007. "Securitization of Longevity Risk: Pricing Survivor Bonds With Wang Transform in the Lee-Carter Framework," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 87-113.
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- Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
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