The win-first probability under interest force
In a classical risk model under constant interest force, we study the probability that the surplus of an insurance company reaches an upper barrier before a lower barrier. We define this probability as win-first probability. Borrowing ideas from life-insurance theory, hazard rates of the maximum of the surplus before ruin, regarded as a remaining future lifetime random variable, are studied, and provide an original derivation of the win-first probability. We propose an algorithm to efficiently compute this risk-return indicator and its derivatives in the general case, as well as bounds of these quantities. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is compared with adaptations of other existing methods, and its interest is illustrated by the computation of the expected amount of dividends paid until ruin in a risk model with a dividend barrier strategy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Brekelmans, R.C.M. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B., 2000.
"Approximating the Finite-Time Ruin Probability under Interest Force,"
2000-111, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Brekelmans, Ruud & De Waegenaere, Anja, 2001. "Approximating the finite-time ruin probability under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 217-229, October.
- Sundt, Bjorn & Teugels, Jozef L., 1997. "The adjustment function in ruin estimates under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 85-94, April.
- Konstantinides, Dimitrios & Tang, Qihe & Tsitsiashvili, Gurami, 2002. "Estimates for the ruin probability in the classical risk model with constant interest force in the presence of heavy tails," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 447-460, December.
- Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004.
"Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities,"
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
- Didier Rullière & Stéphane Loisel, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefèvre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Post-Print hal-00379412, HAL.
- Wang, Nan & Politis, Konstadinos, 2002. "Some characteristics of a surplus process in the presence of an upper barrier," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 231-241, April.
- Sundt, Bjorn & Teugels, Jozef L., 1995. "Ruin estimates under interest force," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 7-22, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:37:y:2005:i:3:p:421-442. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.