IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipds1544612325013923.html

Beyond the final whistle: AFL grand final and retail investor trading

Author

Listed:
  • Sui, Yanjun
  • Tian, Xiao
  • Zhong, Angel
  • Chiah, Mardy

Abstract

This study investigates how the Australian Football League (AFL) Grand Final affects retail investor behavior and market quality in the Australian equity market. Using proprietary broker-level trading data from 2017-2023, we find retail trading activity declines significantly during the AFL week. This retail withdrawal creates pronounced but temporary market quality effects—reducing both volatility and liquidity. Our findings establish retail investors as crucial market participants and demonstrate how predictable attention shocks can create short-term distortions in financial markets. These findings have implications for market participants anticipating similar events and contribute to broader understanding of how investors’ heterogenous behavior influences market efficiency and price discovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Sui, Yanjun & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel & Chiah, Mardy, 2025. "Beyond the final whistle: AFL grand final and retail investor trading," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325013923
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325013923
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108137?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron Kaniel & Shuming Liu & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2012. "Individual Investor Trading and Return Patterns around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(2), pages 639-680, April.
    2. Jones, Charles M. & Shi, Donghui & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhang, Xinran, 2025. "Retail Trading and Return Predictability in China," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 68-104, February.
    3. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Selim Topaloglu, 2003. "The Dynamics of Institutional and Individual Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(6), pages 2285-2320, December.
    4. Alex Edmans & Diego García & Øyvind Norli, 2007. "Sports Sentiment and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1967-1998, August.
    5. Tarun Chordia & Richard Roll & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2001. "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 501-530, April.
    6. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    7. Chiah, Mardy & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Lockdown and retail trading in the equity market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Chiah, Mardy & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel, 2025. "Nature's impact: Do extreme natural disasters influence retail investors?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    9. Joel Peress & Daniel Schmidt, 2020. "Glued to the TV: Distracted Noise Traders and Stock Market Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(2), pages 1083-1133, April.
    10. Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Gideon Saar, 2012. "Lack of Anonymity and the Inference from Order Flow," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(5), pages 1414-1456.
    11. Azi Ben-Rephael & Zhi Da & Ryan D. Israelsen, 2017. "It Depends on Where You Search: Institutional Investor Attention and Underreaction to News," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3009-3047.
    12. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    13. Münster, Markus & Reichenbach, Felix & Walther, Martin, 2024. "Robinhood, Reddit, and the news: The impact of traditional and social media on retail investor trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    14. Marco Pagano, 1989. "Trading Volume and Asset Liquidity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 255-274.
    15. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Terrance Odean & Christopher Schwarz, 2022. "Attention‐Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(6), pages 3141-3190, December.
    16. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang & Xinran Zhang, 2021. "Tracking Retail Investor Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2249-2305, October.
    17. Liu, Hongqi & Peng, Lin & Tang, Yi, 2023. "Retail Attention, Institutional Attention," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 1005-1038, May.
    18. Chiou, Calvin J. & Zhou, Xiaozhou & Chan, Chang, 2022. "A taxonomy of individual liquidity provision: Evidence from the Taiwan stock exchange," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Michael Ehrmann & David‐Jan Jansen, 2017. "The Pitch Rather Than the Pit: Investor Inattention, Trading Activity, and FIFA World Cup Matches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 807-821, June.
    20. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Philippe Jorion & Terrance Odean & Christopher Schwarz, 2024. "A (Sub)penny for Your Thoughts: Tracking Retail Investor Activity in TAQ," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2403-2427, August.
    21. Michael Ehrmann & David-Jan Jansen, 2016. "It Hurts (Stock Prices) When Your Team is about to Lose a Soccer Match," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1215-1233.
    22. Marchetti, James & Tian, Xiao & Lee, Alex & Kalev, Petko S., 2025. "Who watches what and why it matters: Attention allocation, tug-of-war, and market resiliency: A pre-registered report," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    23. Chang, Shao-Chi & Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chou, Robin K. & Lin, Yueh-Hsiang, 2012. "Local sports sentiment and returns of locally headquartered stocks: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 309-318.
    24. Zhi Da & Joseph Engelberg & Pengjie Gao, 2011. "In Search of Attention," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1461-1499, October.
    25. Fong, Kingsley Y. L. & Gallagher, David R. & Lee, Adrian D., 2014. "Individual Investors and Broker Types," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 431-451, April.
    26. Ivo Welch, 2022. "The Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(3), pages 1489-1527, June.
    27. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2008. "All That Glitters: The Effect of Attention and News on the Buying Behavior of Individual and Institutional Investors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 785-818, April.
    28. Boehme, Rodney D. & Danielsen, Bartley R. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2006. "Short-Sale Constraints, Differences of Opinion, and Overvaluation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 455-487, June.
    29. Chai, Daniel & Chiah, Mardy & Zhong, Angel, 2019. "Choosing factors: Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    30. Drummond, Philip A., 2023. "Market quality surrounding anticipated distraction events: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    31. Brad M. Barber & Yi-Tsung Lee & Yu-Jane Liu & Terrance Odean, 2009. "Just How Much Do Individual Investors Lose by Trading?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 609-632, February.
    32. Alok Kumar & Charles M.C. Lee, 2006. "Retail Investor Sentiment and Return Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2451-2486, October.
    33. Tian, Xiao & Do, Binh & Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2015. "Liquidity provision and informed trading by individual investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(PA), pages 143-162.
    34. Jessica Y. Wang & Raphael N. Markellos, 2018. "Is there an Olympic gold medal rush in the stock market?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(17), pages 1631-1648, November.
    35. Zhou, Xiaozhou & Zhan, Feng & Chan, Chang, 2025. "How retail investors affect the stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiah, Mardy & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel, 2025. "Nature's impact: Do extreme natural disasters influence retail investors?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    2. Marchetti, James & Tian, Xiao & Lee, Alex & Kalev, Petko S., 2025. "Who watches what and why it matters: Attention allocation, tug-of-war, and market resiliency: A pre-registered report," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Zhi Da & Jian Hua & Tim Chih-Ching Hung & Lin Peng, 2025. "Market Returns and a Tale of Two Types of Attention," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(12), pages 10505-10537, December.
    4. Wilkinson, Finn West & Finta, Marinela Adriana & Onishchenko, Olena, 2025. "COVID-19 and investors' trading behavior: Evidence from the New Zealand equity market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Haghighi, Afshin & Faff, Robert & Oliver, Barry, 2024. "Retail traders and co-movement: Evidence from Robinhood trading activity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Wang, Albert Y. & Young, Michael, 2023. "Mood, attention, and household trading: Evidence from terrorist attacks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    7. Li, Qianqian & Watts, Edward M. & Zhu, Christina, 2024. "Retail investors and ESG news," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2).
    8. Warkulat, Sonja & Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Social media attention and retail investor behavior: Evidence from r/wallstreetbets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    9. Jeremy Michels, 2025. "Retail investor trade and the pricing of earnings," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 575-610, March.
    10. Djalilov, Abdulaziz & Ülkü, Numan, 2021. "Individual investors’ trading behavior in Moscow Exchange and the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    11. Stephen P. Ferris & Jan Hanousek, Jr. & Jan Hanousek & Jolana Stejskalova, 2025. "The Power of the Crowd: Retail Investors and the Cost of Capital," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2025-105, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    12. Reza Bradrania & Andrew Grant & Peter Joakim Westerholm & Wei Wu, 2017. "Fool's mate: What does CHESS tell us about individual investor trading performance?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(4), pages 981-1017, December.
    13. Sun, Xuchu & Zhang, Qing & Li, Tangrong, 2026. "How are retail investors informed? A perspective from institutional trading intention exposure," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Taha Havakhor & Mohammad Saifur Rahman & Tianjian Zhang & Chenqi Zhu, 2025. "Tech-Enabled Financial Data Access, Retail Investors, and Gambling-Like Behavior in the Stock Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 71(2), pages 1646-1670, February.
    15. Jun Du & Dashan Huang & Yu-Jane Liu & Yushui Shi & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Huacheng Zhang, 2026. "Nominal Prices, Retail Investor Participation, and Return Momentum," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(3), pages 2064-2089, March.
    16. Kryzanowski, Lawrence & Rouhghalandari, Ali, 2024. "Institutional/retail investor active attention and behavior: Firm coverage on Mad Money," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    17. Danny Lo, 2015. "Essays in Market Microstructure and Investor Trading," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 4-2015, January-A.
    18. Drummond, Philip A., 2023. "Market quality surrounding anticipated distraction events: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    19. Chen, Zhongdong & Craig, Karen Ann, 2023. "Active attention, retail investor base, and stock returns," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    20. Hwang, Yoontae & Park, Junpyo & Kim, Jang Ho & Lee, Yongjae & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2024. "Heterogeneous trading behaviors of individual investors: A deep clustering approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325013923. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.