Are broad market shocks anticipated by investors? Evidence from major equity and index options markets
This paper examines trading activity in five index options markets before significant price shocks in the underlying asset (S&P100, FTSE100, CAC40, DAX30, and AEX). The results indicate abnormal call and put option trading volume before price shocks for a large number of cases, implying that market participants anticipate shocks and use the options market as the venue for their trading. This pattern is similar for all markets and persistent for three different pre-event periods (10, 20, and 30Â days), two different periods used to calculate the benchmark period trading volume (100 and 140Â days), and of whether open interest is used instead of trading volume. Further tests suggest that investors may use both long and short strategies.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, 06.
- G. Geoffrey Booth & Raymond W. So & Yiuman Tse, 1999. "Price discovery in the German equity index derivatives markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(6), pages 619-643, 09.
- Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(03), pages 345-365, September.
- Chan, Wesley S., 2003. "Stock price reaction to news and no-news: drift and reversal after headlines," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 223-260, November.
- Arnold, Tom & Erwin, Gayle & Nail, Lance & Nixon, Terry, 2006. "Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-255.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1996. " Multifactor Explanations of Asset Pricing Anomalies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 55-84, March.
- Jun Pan & Allen Poteshman, 2004.
"The Information of Option Volume for Future Stock Prices,"
NBER Working Papers
10925, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
- David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, 04.
- Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-63, April.
- Mayhew, Stewart & Sarin, Atulya & Shastri, Kuldeep, 1995. " The Allocation of Informed Trading across Related Markets: An Analysis of the Impact of Changes in Equity-Option Margin Requirements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1635-53, December.
- Brown, Keith C. & Harlow, W. V. & Tinic, Seha M., 1988. "Risk aversion, uncertain information, and market efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 355-385, December.
- Jayaraman, Narayanan & Frye, Melissa B & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2001. "Informed Testing around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 45-74, May.
- Emilios C. Galariotis & Spyros I. Spyrou & Konstantinos Kassimatis, 2008.
"Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence,"
- Kassimatis, Konstantinos & Spyrou, Spyros & Galariotis, Emilios, 2008. "Short-term patterns in government bond returns following market shocks: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 903-924, December.
- Oliver Schnusenberg & Jeff Madura, 2001. "Do U.S. Stock Market Indexes Over- Or Underreact?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(2), pages 179-204, 06.
- Patrick J. Dennis & Deon Strickland, 2002. "Who Blinks in Volatile Markets, Individuals or Institutions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 1923-1949, October.
- Lee, Jason & Yi, Cheong H., 2001. "Trade Size and Information-Motivated Trading in the Options and Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 485-501, December.
- Sanders, Ralph W. & Zdanowicz, John S., 1992. "Target Firm Abnormal Returns and Trading Volume around the Initiation of Change in Control Transactions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(01), pages 109-129, March.
- Lasfer, M. Ameziane & Melnik, Arie & Thomas, Dylan C., 2003. "Short-term reaction of stock markets in stressful circumstances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1959-1977, October.
- Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "Nonstationary expected returns : Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlation in returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-74, November.
- Charles Quanwei Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2003.
"Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers,"
Yale School of Management Working Papers
ysm422, Yale School of Management.
- Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:20:y:2011:i:3:p:127-133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.