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Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

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  • Bremer, Marc
  • Hiraki, Takato
  • Sweeney, Richard J.

Abstract

This paper extends to Japanese stocks recent research on short-term stock price adjustment to new information. Using standard methodologies, we find that stock returns of firms included in the Nikkei 300 tend to be significantly positive after large price decreases. This is similar to the pattern observed for American stocks in other research. The pattern remains when returns are adjusted for market movements, and exists independently of the October 1987 market break. We find little evidence of significant patterns following large stock price increases. We also find little evidence that non-transaction prices explain the persistent, significant returns observed following large price decreases on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. We conjecture that broker/dealers and TSE member firms respond to large price decreases not by trading for their own profit, but rather by selectively supplying liquidity to their preferred retail customers. We conclude that ordinary investors probably cannot earn economic profits from these statistically significant patterns.

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  • Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato & Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Predictable Patterns after Large Stock Price Changes on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(03), pages 345-365, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:32:y:1997:i:03:p:345-365_00
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    1. Gong-meng Chen & Oliver Rui & Steven Wang, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Price Limits and Stock Characteristics: Evidence from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 159-182, September.
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    3. Aman, Hiroyuki, 2013. "An analysis of the impact of media coverage on stock price crashes and jumps: Evidence from Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 22-38.
    4. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan Lael & Palliere, Clement, 2009. "Stock index reaction to large price changes: Evidence from major Asian stock indexes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 444-459.
    5. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana & Alex Plastun, 2014. "Short-Term Price Overreaction: Identification, Testing, Exploitation," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1423, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Vinay Patel, 2015. "Price Discovery in US and Australian Stock and Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 27.
    7. Goldstein, Michael A. & Kavajecz, Kenneth A., 2004. "Trading strategies during circuit breakers and extreme market movements," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 301-333, June.
    8. Patel, Vinay & Michayluk, David, 2016. "Return predictability following different drivers of large price changes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 202-214.
    9. Foort, HAMELINK, 1998. "Systematic Patterns Before and After Large Price Changes: Evidence from High Frequency Data from the Paris Bourse," Les Cahiers de Recherche 655, HEC Paris.
    10. Michael A. Goldstein & Kenneth A. Kavajecz, "undated". "Liquidity Provision during Circuit Breakers and Extreme Market Movements," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 1-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    11. Mazouz, Khelifa & Joseph, Nathan L. & Joulmer, Joulmer, 2009. "Stock price reaction following large one-day price changes: UK evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(8), pages 1481-1493, August.
    12. Spyrou, Spyros, 2011. "Are broad market shocks anticipated by investors? Evidence from major equity and index options markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 127-133, June.
    13. Bremer, Marc & Hiraki, Takato, 1999. "Volume and individual security returns on the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 351-370.
    14. Lobe, Sebastian & Rieks, Johannes, 2011. "Short-term market overreaction on the Frankfurt stock exchange," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 113-123, May.
    15. Jain, Pankaj K. & Jain, Pawan & McInish, Thomas H., 2016. "Does high-frequency trading increase systemic risk?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-24.
    16. repec:rmk:rmkjrc:v:4:y:2017:i:1:p:71-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Amini, Shima & Gebka, Bartosz & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "A review of the international literature on the short term predictability of stock prices conditional on large prior price changes: Microstructure, behavioral and risk related explanations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-17.
    18. Adam Zawadowski & Gyorgy Andor & Janos Kertesz, 2006. "Short-term market reaction after extreme price changes of liquid stocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 283-295.
    19. Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Jian, 2014. "Are commodity futures markets short-term efficient? An empirical investigation," 88th Annual Conference, April 9-11, 2014, AgroParisTech, Paris, France 169763, Agricultural Economics Society.
    20. Manuel Ammann & Stephan Markus Kessler, 2009. "Intraday characteristics of stock price crashes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 1239-1255.
    21. Soner AKKOC & Nasif OZKAN, 2013. "An Empirical Investigation of the Uncertain Information Hypothesis: Evidence From Borsa Istanbul," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 7(2), pages 101-119.

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