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Do option open-interest changes foreshadow future equity returns?

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  • Andy Fodor
  • Kevin Krieger
  • James Doran

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  • Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & James Doran, 2011. "Do option open-interest changes foreshadow future equity returns?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 265-280, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:25:y:2011:i:3:p:265-280
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-011-0164-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1703-1726, July.
    4. H. Henry Cao & Hui Ou-Yang, 2009. "Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 299-335, January.
    5. Josef Lakonishok & Inmoo Lee & Neil D. Pearson & Allen M. Poteshman, 2007. "Option Market Activity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 813-857.
    6. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
    7. Vijh, Anand M, 1990. "Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1157-1179, September.
    8. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    9. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    10. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    11. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 335-367, April.
    12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    13. Jayaraman, Narayanan & Frye, Melissa B & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2001. "Informed Testing around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 45-74, May.
    14. Stephan, Jens A & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 191-220, March.
    15. Kaushik I. Amin & Charles M. C. Lee, 1997. "Option Trading, Price Discovery, and Earnings News Dissemination," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 153-192, June.
    16. Schachter, B, 1988. "Open Interest In Stock-Options Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 353-372.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    18. Arnold, Tom & Erwin, Gayle & Nail, Lance & Nixon, Terry, 2006. "Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-255.
    19. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, April.
    20. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    21. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Amarnath Mitra, 2019. "Put–Call Ratio Volume vs. Open Interest in Predicting Market Return: A Frequency Domain Rolling Causality Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    3. Paulo Pereira da Silva, 2016. "Did Investors Seeking Short Exposure Move to the CDS Market after the 2011 Short-Sale Bans in European Financial Stocks?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 322-353, August.
    4. Paulo Silva, 2015. "The information content of the open interest of credit default swaps," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(4), pages 381-427, November.
    5. Sung Won Seo & Suk Joon Byun & Jun Sik Kim, 2020. "Index options open interest and stock market returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 989-1010, June.
    6. Mousumi Bhattacharya & Sharad Nath Bhattacharya & Sumit Kumar Jha, 2022. "Does time-varying illiquidity matter for the Indian stock market? Evidence from high-frequency data," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 251-272, May.
    7. Silva, Paulo Pereira da & Vieira, Carlos & Vieira, Isabel, 2015. "The determinants of CDS open interest dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 95-109.
    8. Antonio Figueiredo & Shahid S. Hamid & Richard Holowczak, 2021. "Stock market signals and consequences of securities class actions lawsuits: a microstructure perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 629-655, August.
    9. Blau, Benjamin M. & Nguyen, Nga & Whitby, Ryan J., 2014. "The information content of option ratios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 179-187.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Options; Open interest; Market efficiency; Investor sentiment; G11; G12; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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