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Do option open-interest changes foreshadow future equity returns?

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  • Andy Fodor
  • Kevin Krieger
  • James Doran

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  • Andy Fodor & Kevin Krieger & James Doran, 2011. "Do option open-interest changes foreshadow future equity returns?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 25(3), pages 265-280, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:25:y:2011:i:3:p:265-280
    DOI: 10.1007/s11408-011-0164-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jun Pan & Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "The Information in Option Volume for Future Stock Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(3), pages 871-908.
    2. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    3. Allen M. Poteshman, 2006. "Unusual Option Market Activity and the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1703-1726, July.
    4. H. Henry Cao & Hui Ou-Yang, 2009. "Differences of Opinion of Public Information and Speculative Trading in Stocks and Options," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 299-335, January.
    5. Josef Lakonishok & Inmoo Lee & Neil D. Pearson & Allen M. Poteshman, 2007. "Option Market Activity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 813-857.
    6. Kalok Chan & Y. Peter Chung & Wai-Ming Fong, 2002. "The Informational Role of Stock and Option Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1049-1075.
    7. Vijh, Anand M, 1990. "Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1157-1179, September.
    8. Charles Cao & Zhiwu Chen & John M. Griffin, 2005. "Informational Content of Option Volume Prior to Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 1073-1109, May.
    9. Manaster, Steven & Rendleman, Richard J, Jr, 1982. "Option Prices as Predictors of Equilibrium Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1043-1057, September.
    10. Sugato Chakravarty & Huseyin Gulen & Stewart Mayhew, 2004. "Informed Trading in Stock and Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1235-1258, June.
    11. Cremers, Martijn & Weinbaum, David, 2010. "Deviations from Put-Call Parity and Stock Return Predictability," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 335-367, April.
    12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1995. "One Security, Many Markets: Determining the Contributions to Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1175-1199, September.
    13. Jayaraman, Narayanan & Frye, Melissa B & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2001. "Informed Testing around Merger Announcements: An Empirical Test Using Transaction Volume and Open Interest in Options Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 36(2), pages 45-74, May.
    14. Stephan, Jens A & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Intraday Price Change and Trading Volume Relations in the Stock and Stock Option Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 191-220, March.
    15. Kaushik I. Amin & Charles M. C. Lee, 1997. "Option Trading, Price Discovery, and Earnings News Dissemination," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 153-192, June.
    16. Schachter, B, 1988. "Open Interest In Stock-Options Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 353-372.
    17. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    18. Arnold, Tom & Erwin, Gayle & Nail, Lance & Nixon, Terry, 2006. "Do option markets substitute for stock markets? Evidence from trading on anticipated tender offer announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 247-255.
    19. David Easley & Maureen O'Hara & P.S. Srinivas, 1998. "Option Volume and Stock Prices: Evidence on Where Informed Traders Trade," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 431-465, April.
    20. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    21. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Amarnath Mitra, 2019. "Put–Call Ratio Volume vs. Open Interest in Predicting Market Return: A Frequency Domain Rolling Causality Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Silva, Paulo Pereira da & Vieira, Carlos & Vieira, Isabel, 2015. "The determinants of CDS open interest dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 95-109.
    3. Antonio Figueiredo & Shahid S. Hamid & Richard Holowczak, 2021. "Stock market signals and consequences of securities class actions lawsuits: a microstructure perspective," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 629-655, August.
    4. Benjamin Hippert & André Uhde & Sascha Tobias Wengerek, 2019. "Determinants of CDS trading on major banks," Working Papers Dissertations 51, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.
    5. Sung Won Seo & Suk Joon Byun & Jun Sik Kim, 2020. "Index options open interest and stock market returns," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 989-1010, June.
    6. Blau, Benjamin M. & Nguyen, Nga & Whitby, Ryan J., 2014. "The information content of option ratios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 179-187.
    7. Paulo Pereira da Silva, 2016. "Did Investors Seeking Short Exposure Move to the CDS Market after the 2011 Short-Sale Bans in European Financial Stocks?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 322-353, August.
    8. Paulo Silva, 2015. "The information content of the open interest of credit default swaps," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 29(4), pages 381-427, November.
    9. Mousumi Bhattacharya & Sharad Nath Bhattacharya & Sumit Kumar Jha, 2022. "Does time-varying illiquidity matter for the Indian stock market? Evidence from high-frequency data," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 47(2), pages 251-272, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Options; Open interest; Market efficiency; Investor sentiment; G11; G12; G14;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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