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A note on takeover success prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Branch, Ben
  • Wang, Jia
  • Yang, Taewon

Abstract

A takeover success prediction model attempts to use information that is publicly available at the time of the announcement in order to predict the probability that a takeover attempt will succeed. This paper develops a takeover success prediction model by comparing two techniques: the traditional logistic regression model and the artificial neural network technology. To alleviate the problem of bias from the sampling variation, we validate our results through re-sampling. Our empirical results indicate that 1). Arbitrage spread, target resistance, deal structure and transaction size are the dominating factors that have impacts on the outcome of a takeover attempt. 2). Neural network model outperforms logistic regression in predicting failed takeover attempts and performs as well as logistic regression in predicting successful takeover attempts.

Suggested Citation

  • Branch, Ben & Wang, Jia & Yang, Taewon, 2008. "A note on takeover success prediction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1186-1193, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:17:y:2008:i:5:p:1186-1193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Samuelson, William & Rosenthal, Leonard, 1986. " Price Movements as Indicators of Tender Offer Success," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 481-499, June.
    2. Officer, Micah S., 2003. "Termination fees in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 431-467, September.
    3. Kar Yan Tam & Melody Y. Kiang, 1992. "Managerial Applications of Neural Networks: The Case of Bank Failure Predictions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(7), pages 926-947, July.
    4. Walkling, Ralph A., 1985. "Predicting Tender Offer Success: A Logistic Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 461-478, December.
    5. G. William Schwert, 2000. "Hostility in Takeovers: In the Eyes of the Beholder?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2599-2640, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bruce A. Blonigen & Justin R. Pierce, 2016. "Evidence for the Effects of Mergers on Market Power and Efficiency," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Wolfgang Bessler & Colin Schneck, 2015. "Excess premium offers and bidder success in European takeovers," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(1), pages 23-62, June.
    3. Zhang, Jianhong & Zhou, Chaohong & Ebbers, Haico, 2011. "Completion of Chinese overseas acquisitions: Institutional perspectives and evidence," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 226-238, April.

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