IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/epplan/v114y2026ics0149718925001788.html

Scenario-based planning for urban sustainability: Envisioning an ecological city in Shandiz, Iran by 2032

Author

Listed:
  • Taheri, Forouzan
  • Kolahi, Mahdi

Abstract

Urban sustainability in developing countries is often hindered by infrastructural limitations and the complexity of environmental uncertainties. This study applies scenario-based planning to explore future pathways for the development of an ecological city in Shandiz, Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, by 2032. Following a six-step scenario planning framework, the research employed a mixed-methods approach, including expert questionnaires to identify and prioritize key drivers, and semi-structured interviews using saturation theory to construct scenario logics. The analysis yielded three distinct future scenarios: the Ideal City (sustainable and inclusive development), the Command City (state-driven but fragile planning), and the Ruined City (unsustainable and fragmented growth). Strategies were formulated to guide urban stakeholders toward realizing the most desirable future. The study contributes to the field of urban futures by demonstrating how participatory scenario planning can support informed decision-making under uncertainty and promote sustainable urban transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Taheri, Forouzan & Kolahi, Mahdi, 2026. "Scenario-based planning for urban sustainability: Envisioning an ecological city in Shandiz, Iran by 2032," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:114:y:2026:i:c:s0149718925001788
    DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102711
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0149718925001788
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102711?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Na’Taki Osborne Jelks & Viniece Jennings & Alessandro Rigolon, 2021. "Green Gentrification and Health: A Scoping Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Cristina Ampatzidou & Joost Vervoort & Zeynep Falay von Flittner & Kirsikka Vaajakallio, 2022. "New Insights, New Rules: What Shapes the Iterative Design of an Urban Planning Game?," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 295-305.
    3. Stavros Kalogiannidis & Dimitrios Kalfas & Grigoris Giannarakis & Maria Paschalidou, 2023. "Integration of Water Resources Management Strategies in Land Use Planning towards Environmental Conservation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-20, October.
    4. Koenraad Danneels, 2023. "THE POLITICS OF URBAN ECOLOGY: Paul Duvigneaud and the Rise of Ecological Urbanism in Brussels during the 1970s," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 792-808, September.
    5. Ameneh Mianabadi & Kamran Davary & Mahdi Kolahi & Judith Fisher, 2022. "Water/climate nexus environmental rural-urban migration and coping strategies," Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 65(5), pages 852-876, April.
    6. I-Chun Catherine Chang & Helga Leitner & Eric Sheppard, 2016. "A Green Leap Forward? Eco-State Restructuring and the Tianjin-Binhai Eco-City Model," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 929-943, June.
    7. Amandine Valérie Pastor & Joao Pedro Nunes & Rossano Ciampalini & Haithem Bahri & Mohamed Annabi & Mohamed Chikhaoui & Armand Crabit & Stéphane Follain & Jan Jacob Keizer & Jérôme Latron & Feliciana L, 2022. "ScenaLand: a simple methodology for developing land use and management scenarios," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 27(8), pages 1-29, December.
    8. Cristina Ampatzidou & Joost Vervoort & Zeynep Falay von Flittner & Kirsikka Vaajakallio, 2022. "New Insights, New Rules: What Shapes the Iterative Design of an Urban Planning Game?," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 295-305.
    9. Liansheng Hu & Yongqin Xi, 2023. "Evaluation of Effective Factors in Achieving Ecological City in the Direction of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Katinka Tóbiás & Lajos Boros, 2025. "Participatory Planning and Gamification: Insights from Hungary," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Andrew Hudson-Smith & Moozhan Shakeri, 2022. "The Future’s Not What It Used To Be: Urban Wormholes, Simulation, Participation, and Planning in the Metaverse," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 7(2), pages 214-217.
    3. Kan, Zihan & Wei, Jiaomin & Kwan, Mei-Po & Yang, Zhenchuan, 2026. "A trajectory mining framework for exploring individual concurrent environmental exposure and its association with mental health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 388(C).
    4. I-Chun Catherine Chang, 2017. "Failure matters: Reassembling eco-urbanism in a globalizing China," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 49(8), pages 1719-1742, August.
    5. Federico Caprotti, 2019. "Spaces of visibility in the smart city: Flagship urban spaces and the smart urban imaginary," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(12), pages 2465-2479, September.
    6. Liansheng Hu & Yongqin Xi, 2023. "Evaluation of Effective Factors in Achieving Ecological City in the Direction of Sustainable Development," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, April.
    7. Alessandro Rigolon & Matthew H. E. M. Browning & Olivia McAnirlin & Hyunseo (Violet) Yoon, 2021. "Green Space and Health Equity: A Systematic Review on the Potential of Green Space to Reduce Health Disparities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(5), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Lea Schwengbeck & Lisanne Hölting & Felix Witing, 2023. "Modeling Climate Regulation of Arable Soils in Northern Saxony under the Influence of Climate Change and Management Practices," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    9. I-Chun Catherine Chang & Sue-Ching Jou & Ming-Kuang Chung, 2021. "Provincialising smart urbanism in Taipei: The smart city as a strategy for urban regime transition," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(3), pages 559-580, February.
    10. Nicole V. DeVille & Linda Powers Tomasso & Olivia P. Stoddard & Grete E. Wilt & Teresa H. Horton & Kathleen L. Wolf & Eric Brymer & Peter H. Kahn & Peter James, 2021. "Time Spent in Nature Is Associated with Increased Pro-Environmental Attitudes and Behaviors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(14), pages 1-18, July.
    11. Kalogiannidis, Stavros & Syndoukas, Dimitrios, 2024. "The Impact of Agricultural Extension Services on Farm Output: A Worldwide Viewpoint," Research on World Agricultural Economy, Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte Ltd (NASS), vol. 5(01), March.
    12. Tila Robinson & Noelle Robertson & Ffion Curtis & Natalie Darko & Ceri R. Jones, 2022. "Examining Psychosocial and Economic Barriers to Green Space Access for Racialised Individuals and Families: A Narrative Literature Review of the Evidence to Date," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(1), pages 1-28, December.
    13. Tao Luo & Yanhan Chen & Xiaojing Chen & Shaoping Hong, 2025. "From Global to Local: Implementing Nature-Based Solutions in Cultural Value Protection for Sustainable Village Development," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    14. Melissa VanSickle & Christopher Coutts, 2022. "Considerations for Children’s Nature Connection and Park Environmental Justice in Western Societies," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-12, August.
    15. Scott Y. Lin, 2021. "Bringing resource management back into the environmental governance agenda: eco-state restructuring in China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(8), pages 12272-12301, August.
    16. Evgenia Tousi & Areti Tseliou & Athina Mela & Maria Sinou & Zoe Kanetaki & Sébastien Jacques, 2024. "Exploring Thermal Discomfort during Mediterranean Heatwaves through Softscape and Hardscape ENVI-Met Simulation Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-37, July.
    17. Outi Luova, 2020. "Local environmental governance and policy implementation: Variegated environmental education in three districts in Tianjin, China," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 57(3), pages 490-507, February.
    18. Pineault, Justine & Blache-Pichette, Clara & Loignon, Christine & Shareck, Martine, 2025. "Gentrification and mental health inequities: a scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 384(C).
    19. Sylvia Kor & Md. Qamruzzaman, 2024. "Decoding the Environmental Synergy in BRI Nations: Analyzing the Influence of Renewable Energy Adoption, Financial Evolution, FDI, and Capital Resilience on Sustainability," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 14(3), pages 582-599, May.
    20. Rob Krueger & David Gibbs & Constance Carr, 2018. "Examining regional competitiveness and the pressures of rapid growth: An interpretive institutionalist account of policy responses in three city regions," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(6), pages 965-986, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:epplan:v:114:y:2026:i:c:s0149718925001788. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/evalprogplan .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.